Health

8 HE ALTH • Summer 2022 By Stephen Underwood I t's been more than two years since COVID-19 first wreaked havoc across the globe. Despite this, the pandemic rages on across Central Massachusetts for a third summer. The minor annoyances and changes to our routines all seem commonplace. At-home tests, masks, and social distancing have dominated our lives for better or worse the last few years. But this time around the state seems more prepared than ever to deal with the omnipresent virus. According to the Mass. Department of Public Health, just over 90% of the population in the state has received at least one dose of the corona- virus vaccines. The state stands at one of the highest in the entire nation in vaccination rates. To date, more than 5 million residents are fully vaccinated across the Bay State. These numbers peaked in 2021 but have tapered off this year. So what can we expect for the rest of the year as we head into the summer months? "This is a cyclical virus," said Dr. Richard Ellison, hospital epidemiologist and professor of medicine at UMass Memorial Medical Center in Worcester. "Assuming no big surprises, we can expect the cases to drop and hopefully stay low until sometime around the October timeframe." Dropping infections COVID-19 infections are often asymptomatic or associated with mild-to-moderate upper respi- ratory tract illness, which makes it more difficult to get an accurate count on the number of infec- tions. But according to the DPH, the illness gener- ally dissipates when the temperature rises. "Coronavirus like all respiratory illnesses have a seasonality to them. They almost always taper off during the summer," said Ellison. "Most virus- es are killed by sunlight, and with more people congregating outside, it's partly why we see a drop. Humidity and wind both also play roles as virus particles can't spread through the air as quickly or dissipate more quickly." Ellison predicts with the drop in case numbers, the state should also see a drop in direct hospitalizations. "At least half of the people coming into the hos- pital are experiencing what we call incidental dis- ease," said Ellison. "People are coming into the hospital because they broke their leg and then when we test them they are positive for COVID. It's impactful for the hospital because they can't be treated in a regular double patient room but have to be quarantined, and special precautions have to be taken." In mid-January of this year, according to DPH, the seven-day average for hospitalizations was 3,139 and 448 in intensive care units across the state. Roughly 14% of those hospitalized were in ICU's. By June, the seven-day average had fallen to 597 hospitalized and 49 in intensive care units, accounting for just 9% overall in ICU's. "One thing is clear … People are less sick. That's the good news," said Ellison. "We are still The ebbs and flows of COVID As Central Mass. just navigated the latest coronavirus spike, the region's providers seek to help at- risk populations as the pandemic switches to endemic A healthcare provider prepares a COVID vaccine at a clinic in Worcester. PHOTO | WBJ FILE

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