Worcester Business Journal

wbjournal.com | June 25, 2018 | Worcester Business Journal 9 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 -1.3% 3.9% -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. total Worcester metro area National peer average New England major city average Massachusetts total -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 1.5% 5.9% -1.3% -3.9% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 0.6% 0.6% -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2006-2008 2009-2011 2012-2014 2015-2017 -66.6% 24.6% Follow the red line: Worcester's people, housing and the economy The main metrics that would reveal signs of a Metro Worcester renaissance -- growth in number of people in the region, new homes being built, and output of the economy -- show Worcester has lagged in local and national comparisons, although the Worcester region is showing signs of an uptick in the most recent years available, which could be the region making up ground for years of being near the back of the pack. Notes: Worcester metro area is defined by U.S. Census as Worcester County and Windham County, Conn. The national peers are Albany, N.Y.; Albuquerque, N.M.; Bakersfield, Calif.; Bridgeport, Conn.; Fresno, Calif.; Greenville, S.C.; Honolulu, Hawaii; Omaha, Neb.; Tucson, Ariz.; and Tulsa, Okla. The New England major cities are Boston, Hartford, Providence, Springfield, Manchester, N.H. and Portland, Maine. For the GDP per capita chart, the U.S. total figure includes only metro areas; for the other three charts, the U.S. total figure includes all areas of the United States. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (population, housing) & U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, GDP per capita) GDP growth The total output of the Metro Worcester economy as measured in gross domestic product generally has lagged behind all local and national comparisons, except coming out of the Great Recession in 2010-2011 and again in 2016 (the most recent year available). Population growth For the entire decade, Metro Worcester's population growth has lagged behind all local and national comparisons, although the area did exceed the average of its national peers for the first time in 2017. Year-over-year growth in GDP per capita Gross domestic product per capita -- a measure of an area's economic output based on its population size -- has been growing in Metro Worcester slower than the local and national comparisons, up until 2016 (the most recent year available) when it more than tripled the nearest comparison. Growth in new housing starts Metro Worcester's new housing construction fell off quicker when the Great Recession hit in 2007 than all local and national comparisons and has recovered at a slower rate, trail- ing even in recent years despite a better-looking percentage growth. Metro Worcester's 1,785 new housing units annually since 2003 is lower than all 10 of its national peers. -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. total Worcester metro area National peer average New England major city average Massachusetts total -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 1.5% 5.9% -1.3% -3.9% Chart color key: Annual growth (percent) Annual growth (percent) Annual growth (percent) Growth over previous 3-year total (percent)

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