Worcester Business Journal

www.wbjournal.com • Worcester Business Journal • 2 018 Economic Forecast 5 T he motto of the Central Massachusetts business com- munity might as well be, "Cautiously optimistic." Dating back to 2012 in Worcester Business Journal's annual Economic Forecast survey of its reader- ship, the most popular answer to the question, "How will the economy fare next year compared to this year?" has always been "Improve slightly." This year, 50 percent of respondents picked that answer (which is the lowest it has been since 2012, when it was also 50 percent), but the number of people who ventured a little further out in their predictions and said the economy would "Improve significantly" rose to 15 per- cent, which is the highest portion of the vote that response has ever gotten. "Cautiously optimistic" could, of course, be the mantra of the entire U.S. economy since the end of the Great Recession. While certain industries and geographies have grown faster than others, the country as a whole hasn't experienced an undisputed boom in its business output, wages, employment or profits. That cautious optimism extends to what WBJ readers plan to do with their own companies in 2018, as the A steady incline For the sixth year in a row, WBJ readers expect mild growth in the economy next year Do you think the Central Massachusetts economy is in better or worse condition today than it was at this time last year? This positive assessment of the region's economy is the highest since this question was first asked in 2015. What do you expect housing prices to do in 2018? This level of optimism about the housing market is the highest in the history of WBJ's Economic Forecast survey. Housing prices in Worcester County have increased 6 percent for the year, so the optimism may be well-founded. ECONOMIC FORECAST 2018 BY BRAD KANE Worcester Business Journal Editor Better 84% 8% 8% Worse Not sure The Worcester Railers' inaugural season, which started Oct. 14, points to the optimism of the Central Massachusetts business community, as President Michael Myers and the rest of the team believe the economy has grown to the point to support professional hockey, even though two other teams have tried and failed in the last two decades. Great Recession taught us an economic downturn can force businesses to claw back gains and expansions made in good times. Despite 85 percent of WBJ readers saying the economy is in better condi- tion today than it was last year and 65 percent saying it will improve either slightly or significantly in 2018, only • 40 percent said they would hire new staff next year; • 49 percent have expansion plans for 2018; • 19 percent plan to raise capital in 2018; and • 28 percent will make an investment in property, plant or equipment next year. Even though WBJ readers had trepi- dations about making significant invest- ments in their companies, the majority expect positive years for their business- es: 76 percent say revenue will increase over 2017 and 73 percent expect profits to improve. On the flip side, only 13 percent expected revenue to drop while only 9 percent expect profits to drop. Sure, WBJ readers may be cautious, but they see the economy moving in the right direction. That's not a bad motto to have. 3% Remain flat 25% Increase 72% Decrease Do you plan to hire additional staff in 2017? 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 31% 33% 44% 38% 32% 40% W

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