Worcester Business Journal

www.wbjournal.com • Worcester Business Journal • 2 018 Economic Forecast 7 Central Mass. Top Economist projections In February at its Economic Forecast event, Worcester Business Journal asked the attendees to project key economic metrics for the state, the nation and the world, with those projected closest to the actual result being dubbed Top Economists in Central Massachusetts. While the winners will be crowned at this year's event in February, we checked in on the guesstimates by the 58 contestants, as of Dec. 18. n What will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be as of 12-31-2017? Dow Jones as of Dec. 18, 2017: 24,792 Closest, so far: 25,350 by Ryan Henderson of Maynard High School Most optimistic projection: 25,350 by Ryan Henderson of Maynard High School Most pessimistic projection: 14,980 by Rich Aroien of Clark University n What will the annual GDP growth be for 2017? Annual GDP growth as of the end of the third quarter: 3.19% Closest, so far: 3.20% by Tom Hastings of West Plain Capital Most optimistic projection: 4.20% by Eric Gaetz of TD Bank & Doris Huard of Bartholomew & Co. Most pessimistic projection: 1.00% by Rich Aroien of Clark University & Sandy Brock of Nitsch Engineering n What will the national unemployment rate be as of December 31, 2017? National unemployment rate as of November: 4.1% Closest, so far: 4.1% by Glen Bunnell of Tassert Advisors Most optimistic projection: 2.3% by Ryan Henderson of Maynard High School Most pessimistic projection: 6.5% by Rich Aroien of Clark University n What will the Massachusetts unemployment rate be as of December 31, 2017? National unemployment rate as of October: 3.7% Closest, so far: 3.8% by Matt Tillo of Commerce Bank & Peter Dunn of the City of Worcester Most optimistic projection: 1.7% by Marina Taylor of UniBank Most pessimistic projection: 4.8% by Rich Aroien of Clark University & Sandy Brock of Nitsch Engineering n What will the benchmark price of a barrel of Brent crude oil be as of December 31, 2017? Price of barrel of Brent crude as of Dec. 18, 2018: $63.33 Closest, so far: $63.50 by Bob Tetrault of A.H. Harris & Sons, Inc. Most optimistic projection: $41.25 by Matt Tillo of Commerce Bank Most pessimistic projection: $94.00 by Sandy Brock of Nitsch Engineering Will you raise capital in 2017? This answer is largely in line with what WBJ readers said the last five years, as the portion of survey respon- dents who plan to raise capital has always been between 12-18 percent. Yes 18% No 56% I don't know 26%

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