Hartford Business Journal

www.HartfordBusiness.com • October 9, 2017 • Hartford Business Journal 9 FOCUS Fuel-cell vehicles await their moment Of the 5,565 electric vehicles (EV) reg- istered in Connecticut, three are powered by fuel cells — which convert compressed hydrogen gas into electricity. Fuel cell vehicles, or FCEVs, could help Connecticut's EV ambitions, but it will require the state to adopt hydrogen fueling stations to become a factor. "That is a huge barrier to moving for- ward," said Joel Rinebold, director of energy initiatives at the Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology, which administers the Northeast Electrochemical Energy Stor- age Cluster. But progress is being made. Air Liquide, in conjunction with Toyota, is slated to open the state's first commercial-scale hydrogen station by year's end. There's another facil- ity at Proton OnSite in Wallingford. After Air Liquide opens its facility in Hartford's North Meadows section, Rinebold expects momentum to build. "We would fully expect additional stations to be opened, some with support from gov- ernment," he said. "There will be ramp-up from 2017 to the 2020s." DEEP is planning to dangle incentives to developers who want to build hydrogen stations in a different part of the state. Farrell said the agency is hoping to offer up $800,000. Commercially available fuel cell vehicle models are relatively expensive. The Toyota Mirai, for example, starts at $57,500. Despite that, Rinebold predicts the vehicles, which have long ranges and can be refueled much faster than electric ve- hicles can be recharged, will have a steeper growth pace than EVs. "I fully expect to see fleets of fuel cell vehicles by 2025," he said. mental Protection (DEEP), which adminis- ters CHEAPR, understands the importance of rebates, but has no plans to increase the size of the incentives, said Paul Farrell, as- sistant director of planning and standards in DEEP's air management bureau. "I don't look at this rebate program as a long-term solution really," Farrell said. "Right now we're just trying to kickstart the market. If we can get another three to five years out of CHEAPR, we will be delighted." The agency has doled out approximately $4.7 million in CHEAPR rebates since 2015 — funding cobbled together from utility settlements and environmental enforcement actions. CHEAPR funding was set to run out by the end of September, but DEEP replen- ished the pot with another $2.6 million, ensuring there would be no interruption to the incentives, at least for now. An evolving goal Connecticut and seven other states — California (which has been the clear leader in EV deployment), Maryland, Mas - sachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont — in 2013 committed to putting a combined 3.3 million electric vehicles on the road by 2025. The goal is lofty and perhaps aspirational. So far, none of the states, not even California, is on pace to hit their respective goals, which vary based on how many cars are registered. However, 3.3 million EVs may not be a concrete target. The eight states that signed the memorandum of understanding four years ago could still declare success, even if a lower total is hit. The Golden State's Air Resources Board, for example, recently determined that Cali- fornia's goal of 1.5 million vehicles, which would be equivalent to about 15 percent of all registered vehicles by 2025, could actu- ally be reduced by nearly 50 percent. The reason? The original goal had less to do with the number of electric cars on the road, than with the environmental benefits that greater EV usage could achieve. Since 2013, electric vehicle technology has significantly advanced, resulting in higher efficiency and vehicle ranges, and more reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, fewer electric cars are needed to achieve those 2013 EV environmental goals. "The number of electric vehicles re- quired for compli- ance is lower than we thought it was going to be, mainly because electric vehicles sold today get better range and have better batteries than ve- hicles sold in 2012," said Matthew Solomon, trans- portation program manager at the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, which coordinates a task force of the eight states that made the EV pledge. Unlike California, DEEP has not recalcu- lated its 2025 goal. Solomon cautioned against assuming the goal would change in exactly the same way as California's did. "Though California has calculated that its 2025 goal is now around 8 percent, down from 15 percent originally, each state will be different, depending on the exact mix of electric vehicles sold," he said. With another eight years to go until 2025, Acadia's Lewis said it's too soon to consider lowering the state's goals yet. "With Connecticut's emissions well above the 2020 requirement, and transportation being the largest contributor to those emis- sions, why wouldn't the state continue to aim for the original goal?" she said. Opportunities, uncertainty ahead Given the existing sales trend, it's safe to say electric vehicles will become more common on Connecticut's roadways. According to the Westport Electric Car Club, the most popular EVs in Connecticut are the Tesla Model S, which has a starting sticker price of approximately $68,000, fol- lowed by the Chevy Volt, which has a price of approximately $33,000. But exactly how quickly EVs gain market share will be up to market forces and govern- ment policies. Technology will continue to advance as manufacturers look to shrink batteries and improve EV efficiency. CHEAPR rebates could be gone well before 2025 rolls around. And federal tax credits are set to begin expiring in 2018, which could put a damper on sales for certain manufacturers. Some have even worried that the credits could be targeted by Congress as a way to help pay for President Donald Trump's recently unveiled tax cut proposal. Another uncertainty is Tesla, which has tried unsuccessfully several times to get legislative approval to sell its cars directly to Connecticut consumers. The company has faced strong opposition from auto deal- erships, but vowed to continue its lobbying push until it gets its way. Tesla has said establishing a sales pres- ence in Connecticut would enable it to sell more vehicles here. Other somewhat arcane market rules could also have an impact, Solomon said. Under the California emissions rules that Connecticut adopted in 2004, electric ve- hicle manufacturers will soon be required to start selling more cars in Northeast states, but they will be able to decide which ones get the most attention — perhaps those with the most favorable policies. (Left) An EV charger port. (Right) An EV charging station. Connecticut electric vehicle sales Source: The Auto Alliance; R.L. Polk & Co Source: DMV data as of Feb. 2017; Westport Electric Car Club Vehicles Sold 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 111 1,118 826 1,015 1,512 616 Most popular electric vehicles registered in CT 0 400 800 1,200 Tesla Model S Chevy Volt Toyota Prius Plug-in Ford Fusion SE Nissan Leaf Tesla Model X Make/Model No. Registered 1,112 984 681 393 363 204 A Toyota Mirai fuel-cell vehicle. "I fully expect to see fleets of fuel cell vehicles by 2025." Joel Rinebold , director of energy initiatives at the Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology. PHOTO | MARIORDO59, FLICKR CREATIVE COMMONS

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