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W W W. M A I N E B I Z . B I Z 19 S E P T E M B E R 1 8 , 2 0 1 7 F O C U S H E A L T H C A R E e group projects a shortage of between , and , primary care doctors, making it di - cult for millions of people to get preventive health care services, and an "equally troubling" shortage of between , and , specialists, a ecting growing numbers of older patients with Alzheimer's disease, cancer and heart conditions. Maine, already the oldest state with a median age of . (nearly seven years above the U.S. gure) and nearly a third of its active physicians age and older, not to mention a large rural population, looks to be hit especially hard. e Maine Department of Labor estimates that about , more jobs will be needed in healthcare and social assistance by , already the largest employer with a total of , employees in . While there are various myths surrounding the expected shortfall, Jonathan Harvey, a doctor who serves as chief medical o cer at Martin's Point Health Care, doesn't think the numbers are o . "Wedon't think the predictions are exaggerated at all in light of the aging populationthat we serve in Maine," he says. "Folks need more medical care as they get older, and at the same time you haveatrendwherephysi- ciansand nurse practitioners arewanting to work part- time. ese factors lead to a relative scarcity of primary care providers, and physicians in general, and causes organizations to think strategically about how they recruit and more speci cally about how they deliver the needed care more e ciently." At Martin's Point, a nonpro t that employs close to physicians across six locations in Maine — three of which were opened in the past ve years — and one in Portsmouth, N.H., that strategic thinking includes recruiting doctors who can e ectively work on teams with other medical sta and proactive recruiting. "It used to be we would wait for an opening before placingan ad or posting a position," Harvey says. "Now we're looking tohire folks well in advance of their start date. It'snot unusual to engage high potential candidates two years ahead and to then hire a full year in advance." C O N T I N U E D O N PA G E 2 2 » 75th percentile 25th percentile 0 20K 40K 60K 80K 100K 120K 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 104,900 40,800 PROJECTED TOTAL PHYSICIAN SHORTFALL, 2015–2030 S O U R C E : IHS Markit / Assn. of American Med. Colleges