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W W W. M A I N E B I Z . B I Z 19 M AY 1 , 2 0 1 7 F O C U S G L O B A L E C O N O M Y S hifting sands in the European Union, includ- ing Britain's exit from the EU, known as Brexit, and federal elections in France, Britain and Germany, will create uncertainty in international trade and investment, experts say, but with that uncertainty comes opportunities for smart Maine companies. "Whatever else is happening with politics, busi- ness continues," says Wade Merritt, vice president of the Maine International Trade Center in Portland. "Twenty percent of the global GDP is traded." e EU accounts for four of Maine's top 10 overseas markets, according to the trade group, with the state exporting goods valued at $503 million to EU coun- tries in 2016. e EU has the second-largest economy in the world, worth $16 trillion, second to the United States at $19.4 trillion, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. e high trade numbers create a scenario similar to the "too big to fail" theory that asserts that institutions, or in this case countries, are so large and interconnected that their failure would be disastrous to the greater economic system, so international trade almost creates its own safety net. " ere's a lot of focus on Brexit," says Matt Tripodi, general account director for Euromonitor International Inc., a Chicago research and consulting fi rm. "Is Brexit positive or negative? It all depends on who you are and how your business is positioned. e longer-term game plan for Maine has to be busi- nesses staying involved in exporting." Tripodi is part of a panel to be chaired by Merritt on MITC's Trade Day 2017 on May 25 at Bangor's Cross Insurance Center. It is expected to draw 400 businesspeople. e focus is "Charting a Course in the Changing EU." e other panelists are Harriet Cross, Britain's Consul General to New England, who is based in Boston; Jennifer Yoder, chair of the govern- ment department at Colby College in Waterville; and Mark O'Connell, CEO of OCO Global, an economic development and investment consultancy based in Belfast, Northern Ireland. To Tripodi, international trade is the bigger player to watch than what is happening with trade in individual countries, even though they may shift trading partners or product sources going forward. " e $15.5 trillion in worldwide trade is truly a mas- sive number," he says. "We've seen some retrenchment in value terms, but the volume is going up. And the value and volume will keep going up." Even currency fl uctuations didn't slow down trade of key commodities, like Maine lobster, he EU faces seismic changes Brexit, EU uncertainty open new options for Maine trade B y L o r i V a l i g r a C O N T I N U E D O N F O L L OW I N G PA G E » said. According to Tripodi, live lobster exports from Maine rose $140 million from $243 million in 2013 to $382 million in 2016. Live lobsters, he explains, fi t into the six-digit Harmonized System to classify physical goods for export. Putting the values into perspective, live lob- sters composed 9.1% of all Maine exports in the six- digit HS category in 2013, rising to 13.3% in 2016. e rise came, he said, during a period when the dollar strengthened against other world currencies. Maine trades in other HS categories, such as four-digit code civilian aircraft engines and parts, which more than doubled from $152 million in 2013 to be the top export in that category at $312 million in 2016. But the six-digit HS code category is the state's sweet spot, he says, noting that 68% of all of Maine's trade in value in 2016 is in 25 product cat- egories with six-digit codes. Description 2015 2016 % change 2015–16 1 Aircraft, spacecraft and parts $91,483,600 $200,283,311 118.93 2 Paper and paperboard, articles $47,903,249 $48,374,361 0.98 3 Optic, photo, medic or surgical instrments $28,111,971 $33,665,366 19.75 4 Industrial machinery, including computers $32,599,801 $31,128,378 − 4.51 5 Wood pulp, recovered paper and paperboard $7,488,870 $27,610,959 268.69 6 Special classifi cation provisions $14,676,536 $23,564,000 60.56 7 Plastics and articles $25,443,581 $22,337,199 − 12.21 8 Lac; gums, resins, other vegetable sap and extract $1,414,751 $14,768,867 943.92 9 Miscellaneous chemical products $16,078,313 $14,134,492 − 12.09 10 Electric machinery; sound equip; TV equipment $26,421,598 $13,257,520 − 49.82 TOTAL 25 COMMODITIES $416,701,772 $503,057,880 20.72 TOP 10 EXPORTS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION Tariff Lobster (Homarus americanus), in pieces, cooked 16% Potatoes, prepared, no vinegar, frozen 14.4% Lobsters, live, fresh, dried, salted or in brine 8% Plates, sheets, cellular polyurethanes 6.5% Waste, parings and scrap, plastics 6.5% Cellulose and its chemical derivatives 6.4 – 6.5% Lobsters, including in shell, frozen 6% Textile straining cloth used in oil presses 6% Country 2016 % change 2015–16 1 Italy $57,975,744 7.3 2 Spain 42,921,363 3.3 3 France 25,159,138 5.29 4 United Kingdom 16,090,904 − 12.04 5 Sweden 3,242,812 − 8.1 6 Denmark 2,081,600 708.8 7 Germany 1,584,882 35.06 8 Netherlands 1,191,112 − 28.95 9 Belgium 1,080,527 − 18.57 10 Greece 278,706 26.88 TOTAL $152.4M 4.01 MAINE EXPORTS TO EUROPEAN UNION, HIGHEST TARIFFS TOP EXPORTS OF LOBSTER FROM NORTHEAST STATES S O U R C E : www.wisertrade.org, data from U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division. MAINE'S TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 1. Germany 2. Belgium 3. United Kingdom 4. Netherlands 5. Italy 2015 2016 $103.6M $46.8M $54.8M $51.8M $68.9M $216.5M $60.2M $56.9M $50.5M $38.7M

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