Worcester Business Journal

8 2016 Central Mass By The Numbers • Worcester Business Journal • www.wbjournal.com Community & Employment Anesthesiologists Dentists, General Family and General Practitioners Pediatricians Psychiatrists Chief Executives Physicians, Surgeons Optometrists Podiatrists Nurse Anesthetists Top 10 paying jobs in Central Massachusetts Source: Mass. Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Central Mass. Boston Mass. 0 30 60 90 120 150 Jan. '08 125 94.2 57 Massachusetts U.S. New England Consumer confindence "Optimistic outlook" = 100 Apr. '08 Jul. '08 Oct. '08 Jan. '09 Apr. '09 Jul. '09 Oct. '09 Jan. '10 Apr. '10 Jul. '10 Oct. '10 Jan. '11 Apr. '11 Jul. '11 Oct. '11 Jan. '12 Apr. '12 Jul. '12 Oct. '12 Jan. '13 Apr. '13 Jul. '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 Jul. '14 Oct. '14 Jan. '15 Apr. '15 Jul. '15 Oct. '15 Jan. '16 Apr. '16 Consumer confidence Consumers in Massachusetts continue to be optimistic about their purchasing power coming into the second half of 2016. $274,580 $222,290 $209,710 $195,750 $192,530 $182,730 $174,500 $159,320 $145,960 $145,690 $251,010 $173,330 $212,420 $229,890 $173,280 $216,010 $156,520 $112,230 $151,550 $169,260 $258,230 $179,390 $212,210 $222,480 $176,640 $207,510 $161,730 $115,790 $147,320 $167,160 Local anesthesiologists make 9 percent more than Boston counterparts. Massachusetts consumer confidence hits 16-year peak I n a landscape where the worst news tends to get the most atten- tion, here's something you may have missed: Since the beginning of 2015, Massachusetts residents have consistently declared themselves optimistic about the economy. The Mass Insight Consumer Confidence Index, which uses a scale that makes 100 the breaking point between optimism and pessimism, hit 125 this past April before dropping a bit to 115 in July. The April number is the highest the index has been since October of 2000. "To see a similar strong run in con- sumer confidence numbers, we would have to go back to surveys conducted prior to the dot-com bubble in the early part of the millennium," William Guenther, CEO of Mass Insight Global Partnerships, said in an email. "In Massachusetts, confidence levels have been above the 100-point threshold (his- torically a sign of positive sentiment) for seven straight quarters. This points to a strong perception of solid economic per- formance in the commonwealth." Mass Insight, which works to connect universities, governments and businesses within the state to create strategic eco- nomic policies, bases the index on a survey it conducts each quarter. The idea is to gauge the feelings of regular people about the economy, providing a supple- ment to traditional economic statistics. "The consumer confidence surveys we conduct shed an important light on the current and future directions of both the state and national economies," Guenther said. "We use these metrics – and more specific indicators like big-ticket pur- chases (car, large household appliances, etc.) – to help paint a broader picture along with unemployment numbers, gross state product and other figures." Sustained economic optimism Before 2015, last time the index moved into positive territory was more than eight years earlier. In 2006, the economic peak before the slide into the Great Recession, it briefly hit 101 before drop- ping to a low of 38 in January of 2009. The index's read of consumer senti- ment seems to track the opinions of the area's business leaders, said Timothy Murray, president and CEO of the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce. He sees an increasingly confident outlook among businesses. "It doesn't always feel like it to people, and it's not necessarily across the board, but we are in one of the longest growth periods in U.S. history," he said. The construction and healthcare industries are particularly busy, Murray said. Even manufacturing, which hit a bit of a slump earlier in the year, seems to have picked up, with increasing orders over the past four or five months. "Those orders mean work going into next year, so hopefully that's an ongoing trend," he said. In previous recoveries, employment and economic activity have risen rela- tively sharply but then dropped again after a couple of years, Murray said. This time, growth is consistently upward. "Granted, it's been very incremental and slow, so to some people it may not feel like it," he said. "And not everyone's enjoying in that growth, and that's always a part of the conversation. But I think we see in Central Massachusetts and in the region, growth in a number of sectors." More confident than U.S. Even in the deepest part of the eco- nomic downturn, Massachusetts never hit the same economic depths as some other parts of the country. As the recov- ery progresses, it's been faring somewhat better than the nation as a whole, both in consumer confidence and in objective measures of economic health. In September, the state's unemployment rate hit a 15-year low of 3.6 percent, while the national rate has been hover- ing around 5 percent for the past year. In terms of confidence, the national analog to Mass Insight's tool, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, stood at 101.8 in August. Murray said, in the years since the economy hit its lowest point, optimism among business leaders has been the cautious sort. Companies that have enough work for two new employees might hire only one and add overtime for existing workers. But these days, he said, confidence seems to be on the rise. "I see more companies and individu- als that, if they had waited, more seem to be moving on it now," he said. BY LIVIA GERSHON Special to the Worcester Business Journal W

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