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W W W. M A I N E B I Z . B I Z 11 JA N UA R Y 1 1 , 2 0 1 6 aquaculture, composites and biomedical and oceano- graphic research. Increasing broadband access across the state will also improve Maine's business climate and tourism, especially in more rural areas. What are some trending industries? Moody: Healthcare-related industries will continue to trend up while manufacturing will continue to trend down. Reisman: e sustainability fetish. Everyone wants to be sustainable, but sustainability advocates rarely actually defi ne it and they keep getting key assump- tions about resources, technology and human behavior very wrong, just like the fi rst professor of sustainabil- ity, omas Malthus. Most of our green gurus were modeling a world with oil at $100/barrel and rising. In mid-December, the price was below $40/barrel, and likely heading down. Low energy prices are driving environmentalists insane. We have climate alarm- ism, moral posturing and carbon shaming, staples of progressive politicians, business greenwashers, environ- mentalists and higher education. Green crony capital- ism: Progressive confi dence men and women success- fully peddling wind, climate alarmism and expensive energy. Tax credits to subsidize and mandates to pur- chase "clean energy" are an example. ank you U.S. Sens. [Angus] King and [Susan] Collins. Mill salvage and rehab: After Bucksport, potential projects loom in Lincoln, Jay and the Katahdin region. Maybe we can make ethanol from wood and our senators can have it mandated that everyone has to add it to their gasoline. Rector: On the manufacturing side there are some niche industries that have a lot going on, such as avia- tion/aerospace, boatbuilding and composites. Other trending industries include data solutions; biotech and bioscience; agriculture (especially with the rise of the locavore movement); and health care, to name a few. Many companies in Maine are using new technologies to solve old problems and increase effi ciencies. Lawton: Local agriculture and food production, particularly those specializing in linking grower/ producers to their customers. Martin: Small is beautiful. Maine's economy is at a scale that entrepreneurs can test, refi ne and grow their companies in a supportive environment. Maine entrepreneurs are increasingly capitalizing on a grow- ing appetite for products with a local and authentic feel, from craft beer to personal care products. Even well-established Maine brands like L.L. Bean and Tom's of Maine make the most of Maine's sense of place and unique identity in their marketing. How would you assess the availability of credit for businesses? Moody: On the one hand, interest rates have and continue to be very low, which means more man- ageable loan payments. On the other hand, obtain- ing a loan has been harder thanks in large part to Dodd-Frank, which has the eff ect, both intention- ally and otherwise, of keeping capital on the side- lines. is is why the Federal Reserve continues to pump liquidity into the economy via the mortgage market because traditional bank lending to busi- nesses and consumers is not up to the task. Reisman: ere is little evidence of a lack of fi nan- cial capital availability for Maine businesses. Maine may be somewhat "overbanked," and the strong community bank sector plus expanded Internet availability suggests a very competitive supply environment. Overall confi dence has been sapped by years of sluggish growth, increasing regulatory burden, planning hubris and crony capitalism, sup- pressing the entire market for fi nancial capital. Rector: In general, businesses are able to fi nd the credit they need, particularly through local and Maine-based banks and credit unions, but there are some exceptions. Smaller businesses may have a diffi cult time, along with start-ups and new busi- nesses. e rise of microfi nancing has expanded the availability of credit in some areas, but there can be unexpected pitfalls with this type of fi nancing and businesses and lenders alike should be cautious. Lawton: Broadly available to prospective borrow- ers who have well prepared investment cases. ere is growing competition among community banks and branches of big banks and credit unions. At the same time, documentation, preparation and C o m p i l e d b y P e t e r V a n A l l e n E very year, Mainebiz asks some of the state's leading economists to look to the coming year and offer their thoughts, worries and forecasts. We may be out of the recession, but there is plenty of uncer- tainty out there. Our experts weighed in with written responses. An edited discussion follows. What are some areas of growth in Maine? Scott Moody: Clearly, future economic growth in Maine will come from areas related to caring for the rapidly aging population — hospitals, nursing homes, etc. Maine already has the second highest proportion of its population over the age of 65 in the country at 18.3%, or 243,507 people. In the short run, this is a large market with plenty of discretion- ary income to spend on health services. Jonathan Reisman: Sectoral: Health care, profes- sional/business services. Geographic: Coastal Maine from Kittery to Belfast. Unfortunately, areas of growth include monument services, illegal drugs/ rehab, climate change demagoguery, greenwashing. ey don't include geoengineering research, freedom. Amanda Rector: e recent low oil prices have been a boon for the state, allowing for greater real income growth and increased spending and investment. e low oil prices are expected to continue for much of this next year at least, which will continue to benefi t Mainers, although the need for increased diversifi ca- tion of energy sources in the long term continues. ere have been some exciting developments taking advantage of Maine's geography — both the contin- ued expansion of the International Marine Terminal in Portland and the Front Street Shipyard in Belfast, utilizing Maine's unique coastline. e Midcoast Regional Redevelopment Authority has seen better- than-expected job growth through 2015. Charles Lawton: By sector: Professional and techni- cal services, particularly data analytics, information technology, engineering, scientifi c research; market research; home-based and remote service health care services. By region: Arts, cultural and recreational tourism in the midcoast; housing construction and remodeling in southern Maine. Garrett Martin: Maine's demographics mean that health and personal care will continue to be the most obvious areas of growth. However, beyond that, there are tremendous opportunities for innovation and growth particularly related to agriculture and The five economists: J. Scott Moody CEO and chief economist, Federalism in Action Jonathan Reisman Associate professor of economics and public policy, University of Maine Machias Amanda Rector Maine state economist Charles Lawton Chief economist, Planning Decisions Inc. Garrett Martin Executive director, Maine Center for Economic Policy C O N T I N U E D O N F O L L OW I N G PA G E »

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