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10 2014 Economic Forecast www.wbjournal.com Worcester Business Journal 2014 A look back at... 2013 Predictions What Actually Happened Our Prediction e spread between the national and Massachusetts unemployment rates will narrow. While the spread narrowed significantly, we did not foresee a rise in the Bay State's jobless rate: 6.7 percent in December 2012 to 7.1 percent in November, dropping it behind the national rate of 7 percent. Defense contracts shrank by about $400 million during the federal fiscal year, to about $1.3 billion, according to USAspending.gov. } } } } } } } } } } As part of the federal government's plan to rein in spending and cut the national debt, the value of defense con- tracts to Massachusetts firms will fall. Health insurance premiums in Massa- chusetts will rise, but not by more than 3 percent. is one was hard to gauge because there's no standard measure. Yet, Gov. Deval Patrick said in October that average base-rate premiums rose less than 2 percent. A slight rise in the prices of homes will help narrow the gap between residen- tial and commercial/industrial prop- erty tax rates in Worcester. Last week, city councilors narrowed the gap as assessments rose for most residential housing classes. Median sale prices rose in most Central Massachusetts communities in 2013. A company in Central Massachusetts will have its local or state tax incentive revoked aer not meeting job-addition or investment goals. e Mass. Department of Housing and Economic Development, which oversees such tax-incentive deals, is not aware of any that were revoked. A developer will announce plans to put up a four-star hotel as part of Worcester's CitySquare project. Last week, the City Council approved a tax increment financing deal for a developer that wants to put up two hotels, one a Renaissance by Marriott in CitySquare. ere was no announcement by the developer, but we'll call this a "yes." Central Massachusetts will not get a resort-style casino. Voters in Milford and Palmer saw to that in November, when they rejected proposals in their towns. But Leominster has a shot to win the lone slots parlor license called for in the 2011 gambling-expansion law. e nation's Gross Domestic Product will increase, but barely above this year's growth. Well, we were close. GDP did not increase, but according to the latest estimate, third-quarter growth was slightly behind that of the same quarter in 2012 (2 percent vs. 2.3 percent). A Central Massachusetts-based bank or credit union will be involved in a merger. In April, AllCom and the Worcester Postal credit unions merged. Central Massachusetts hospitals will begin to see a dent in their revenue because of state and federal health reform. All were hit with federal penalties against their revenues because of readmissions, a mandate under the federal Affordable Care Act. But for the current federal fiscal year, eight of 10 hospitals lowered their penalties. 4 ? 4 4 8 4 4 8 4 4