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8 2014 Central Mass By The Numbers • Worcester Business Journal www.wbjournal.com M assachusetts has long prided itself on having an educated workforce. With the many insti- tutions of higher learning in Central Massachusetts and in the Greater Boston area, how can they not sow the seeds of future business success? But are we seeing the beginning of a decline in brain- power in the workplace? Data from a recent report suggest that will happen over the next 15 years as most regions of the Bay State will see a drop in the number of working-age adults who hold college degrees. But Central Massachusetts and MetroWest — along with Greater Boston — will be the exceptions, accord- ing to the report, conducted by the Massachusetts Institute for a New Commonwealth (MassINC) and the UMass Donahue Institute, based in Hadley. The report found the following: • Growth in the number of Bay State workers who hold bachelor's degrees or higher is stagnating. From 1990 to 2010, Massachusetts averaged about 250,000 new degree holders per decade within the prime work- ing-age population (25 to 64). But between 2010 and 2030, that figure is expected to be drastically lower, at 50,000. • The rate of increase in the population of that same group will plunge nearly 90 percent, from an average of 27 percent per decade between 1990 and 2010, to 13 percent in the current decade, to just 3 percent during the 2020s. • The average age of this more educated segment of the workforce could increase. In 2010, just 13 percent of all bachelor's degrees in Massachusetts were held by residents age 65 and older; in 2030, this group will rep- resent 22 percent of residents with college degrees. • While the number of prime working-age adults with college degrees will fall by 2030 in most regions of the state (the highest: 41 percent on Cape Cod), Central Massachusetts, MetroWest and Greater Boston will see modest gains of about 9 or 10 percent. That would build on population gains in the last decade for Worcester and Middlesex counties, according to U.S. census data. Anil Nathan, an economics professor at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester who specializes in labor and demographics, believes a "major" driver of the increase in bachelor's degrees has been a "net migra- tion" of college students from elsewhere, he said in an email response to a question. If that were to slow, the gap would have to be made up by Massachusetts resi- dents, he added. And recent trends showing a migration of business and individuals to the southern and western parts of the U.S. would support the MassINC/Donahue predic- tions, Nathan said. Those predictions are also supported in a report released last week by the state board of higher educa- tion. It said a shortage of skilled college graduates, based at least in part on an expected drop in Massachusetts' high school population in the coming years, will make it a challenge for employers in key industries to fill some jobs. The report calls for more funding for the state's pub- lic colleges and universities and a $210 million increase in student financial aid. That supports Nathan's assertion that Massachusetts must focus on educating its own students to help stanch a "net migration" outside the Bay State. The Holy Cross professor points specifically at the Gateway Cities, 26 communities that anchor regional economies – includ- ing Worcester, Fitchburg and Leominster – as needing attention. The net gain of more students coming into Massachusetts than Bay State residents who head out of state for college will change, Nathan said. That's why state officials must train their sights on helping indus- try grow while investing more in education. Massachusetts needs to focus on "helping our own," he said. n By Rick Saia Worcester Business Journal Staff Writer Signs point to fewer college grads, which may impact workforce DEMOGRAPHICS & EMPLOYMENT Sources: Mass. Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, U.S. Dept. of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, UMass Donahue Institute Mean annual salary for management-level sales roles in Massachusetts, as of May 2013. $140,990 Population growth in Worcester from 2000 to 2013, to 182,544. 5.81% QUICK HITS Personal care and service 101,948 128,861 26,913 26.4% Health care support 104,853 127,467 22,614 21.57% construction and extraction 116,411 139,931 23,520 20.2% computer and mathematical 143,366 171,400 28,034 19.55% community and social service 74,919 89,046 14,127 18.86% Projected percentage changes for top and bottom job categories in Mass., 2012 to 2022 Source: Mass. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development Employment 2012 Employment 2022 Change % Change Production 160,645 156,051 -4,594 -2.86% Architecture and engineering 73,179 76,744 3,565 4.87% office and administrative support 496,952 523,577 26,625 5.36% Farming, fishing and forestry 1,154 1,217 63 5.46% Sales and related 341,381 364,511 23,130 6.78% Employment 2012 Employment 2022 Change % Change n TOP 5 n BOTTOM 5 Population as of July 2013 of New Braintree, the smallest community in Central Massachusetts, up from 929 in 2000. 999 Job gains in health care and social assistance in Massachusetts from 2013 to 2014, a gain of nearly 4.6 percent. 25,600 The number of federal government jobs lost in Massachusetts over the same span, a drop of 2.8 percent. 1,300 The drop in Fitchburg's unemployment rate from July 2013 to July 2014 (10.4 percent to 8.9 percent). 1.5% For more details, see Page 13