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V O L . X X X I I N O. I JA N UA R Y 1 2 , 2 0 2 6 10 F O C U S EC O N O M I C F O R EC A S T B oom, bust or something in between? We asked business leaders around the state for bold pre- dictions about Maine's economy in 2026. Forecasts run the gamut from the specter of a recession to a dose of practical optimism from a coffee entrepreneur. Like a horse-racing handicapper at the track, Keith Luke, Augusta's economic development director, kicked things off with a colorful sports metaphor. "e Maine economy in 2026 resembles a disci- plined thoroughbred in a stakes race," he says. "It won't be flashy out of the gate but will build momentum as conditions improve down the stretch." Patrick Woodcock, president of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, weighed in with two predic- tions — the first related to corporate consolidation. "Mergers in corporate America take off and Maine experiences similar activity, including two major well-known banks announcing a merger in 2026," he predicts. Woodcock also sees more turbulence ahead for Maine's health care sector: "A hospital in rural Maine announces a closure in 2026, catalyzing Maine to accelerate efforts to deploy federal fund- ing to stabilize the rural health care system." Here's what others are expecting in the year ahead. Workforce, inbound residents & investors Quincy Hentzel, president and CEO, Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce: "Maine will finally see a meaningful increase in available workers — driven in large part by innovative child care strategies that will open the door for those parents who want to rejoin the workforce, driving economic growth and business productivity." Katie Shorey, director of engagement at Live + Work in Maine: "As labor markets rebalance, Maine remains New England's No. 1 state for inbound movers because people will continue to value place, purpose and balance." Mary Ellen Eagan, chair of the Maine Angels group of investors: "As confidence in AI and tech falters, investors will turn to sectors of the inno- vation economy in which Maine excels: the blue economy, forestry and bioproducts, and med tech. is will bring national attention — and capital — to the entire Maine ecosystem." Macroeconomic headwinds & tailwinds Andrew Silsby, president and CEO of Kennebec Savings Bank: "We will have a new Federal Reserve chairman by mid-year 2026 and as a result, both the prime lending rate and mortgage rates will drop … and start with a 5 by the end of 2026." Garvan D. Donegan, president and CEO of the Central Maine Growth Council: "Despite per- sistent housing and cost pressures, Maine's low unemployment and population growth are fueling a structural economic shift from traditional industries toward high-tech, digital and professional sectors, effectively steadying broader economic headwinds and increasing state productivity." Justin Lamontagne, managing partner and desig- nated broker at the Dunham Group: "After a wait- and-see response to macroeconomic changes in 2025 … the 'new normal' sets up 2026 to be an exceptional bounce-back year for commercial real estate activity." Elections, international relations Susan V. Morris, a Maine Angel and honorary consul for Canada in Maine: "e 2026 electoral races in Maine will drive real debates about real issues impacting our state's future." BOLD PREDICTIONS for Maine's economy in 2026 span recession risk to practical optimism B y R e n e e C o r d e s F I L E P H O T O / T I M G R E E N WAY It won't be flashy out of the gate but [2026] will build momentum as conditions improve down the stretch. — Keith Luke Augusta's economic development director Keith Luke, Augusta's economic development director, expects Maine's economy to gather momentum later in the year.

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