Mainebiz

V O L . X X X I I N O. I JA N UA R Y 1 2 , 2 0 2 6 22 E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T F O C U S of Biddeford is nervous about the coming year. "I'll be honest," he says. "I think we're in for a challenging year economically." Among the hats he's worn is execu- tive director of E2Tech, and he's tuned into the impact electricity rates can have on businesses. "Electric costs have climbed sig- nificantly, permitting processes remain sluggish and too often local opposition kills promising projects before they get to tell their full story," he says. "is reinforces Maine's reputation for being difficult to do business in — which sends exactly the wrong message to entrepreneurs and investors looking at where to locate or expand." Even keel at said, "Maine has never been a boom-and-bust state," he says. He cites progress in addressing the housing shortage, though laments that the homeless situation "is the real shadow problem, getting worse by the day." Grohman says the 2026 elections — with two U.S. House seats, a Senate seat and the governor's office — "will domi- nate attention and suck the oxygen out of economic discussions. Unfortunately, we'll see more focus on cultural flash- point issues that drive base turnout, rather than on the economic fundamen- tals that affect most Mainers day-to-day." Ever willing to take on new roles, Grohman himself is now leading a startup to help municipalities qualify for Extended Producer Responsibility reimbursements. "As this new law gets implemented, it's going to drive significant opportu- nity in recycling and waste manage- ment," he says. For job seekers, Grohman reminds people that municipalities and nonprof- its are always looking for people, regard- less of economic conditions. "As always in Maine, if you're innova- tive and looking for niches, you can do well," he says. "Just don't stick your head too far out of the foxhole." N O N P RO F I T S / S O C I A L S E RV I C E S 'Hopeful' signs have turned to uncertainty B y P e t e r V a n A l l e n L ast year in Mainebiz, Yellow Light Breen, president and CEO of Maine Development Foundation, was featured in a photo holding the "Hopeful" sign (produced by artist Charlie Hewitt). It summed up how Breen approached the year. But his sentiment has shifted. "Last year, I expressed a supremely hopeful outlook — due to Maine's strong economic trajectory, attractive quality of place and pivotal opportunities transforming heritage sectors and rural development," Breen says. "is year, the hope remains but definitely tempered by uncertainty in the larger economy. e combined effects of a shrinking U.S. labor force, tariff uncer- tainty (some probably overturned in court) and underfunded health care and health care job cuts will push the nation and Maine towards recession." He anticipates that the Fed would "move aggressively to engineer a soft landing" by reducing interest rates and "unsticking" the housing market, helping ease the situation. Maine Development Fund's annual "Measures of Growth" report offered a mixed report on Maine's economy. e report showed "major progress on broadband connectivity," combined with progress on "growing and upskill- ing" the workforce and fostering startups and innovation. But the report also cited several areas for improvement: child care, education and mental health related to kids; steep housing costs and their impact on devel- oping a workforce; and high construc- tion costs, which have been fueled by tariffs and labor shortages. Nonprofit outlook Nonprofits had a particularly hard past year, he notes. "2025 was a brutal year for many nonprofits due to eliminated, delayed or unknown federal funding. 2026 could be even more challenging as longer-term policy shifts take hold," he says. "Creative combinations among nonprofits will be necessary for criti- cal services to survive. I expect Maine philanthropy will take a leadership role; and MDF can help shape that creativity in economic and community development." » C O N T I N U E D F RO M P R E V I O U S PA G E MEREDA's 2026 Forecast Conference Thursday, February 26 • Holiday Inn By the Bay, Portland GOLD SPONSORS: Register today: MEREDA.org (207) 874-0801 • 900+ Attendees • Meaningful Networking with Industry Leaders • Continuing Education Credits • 60+ Showcase Exhibits with Member Organizations (Sold Out) REGISTRATION IS OPEN NOW Expert insights. Expert analysis. Expert outlooks. F I L E P H O T O / J I M N E U G E R Yellow Light Breen is president and CEO of Maine Development Foundation.

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