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V O L . X X X I I N O. I JA N UA R Y 1 2 , 2 0 2 6 16 E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T CA N N A B I S Maine's cannabis industry headed for saturation B y A l e x i s W e l l s M aine's cannabis industry is enter- ing a new stage of maturity — a make-or-break phase that mirrors the trajectory of other legacy markets where rapid demand growth gives way to saturation. at's the perspective of industry con- sultant Jacques Santucci, president and founder of Opus Consulting in Portland. In 2026, price compression and mar- gin pressure will persist, he says. Success will hinge on financial discipline: proac- tive cash-flow management, aggressive cost control and meaningful product and brand differentiation, from a store experience perspective as well as product innovation outlook. "e possibility of federal reform could reshape the operating landscape. While it may ease certain tax and bank- ing constraints, it will not be a cure-all," says Santucci. "ose with strong finan- cials and controls, adequate governance and management and scalable systems will be best positioned to benefit." is past year saw the first distressed companies, and Santucci says that trend will continue in 2026. Cannabis companies will continue to navigate a complex set of state and federal regulations. He urges clients to tackle issues "before challenges become crises." "Change remains the one constant," he says. "When the market evolves faster than your business model, 2026 may be the moment to reassess. Explore your options. Make a strategic pivot. Rebuild with intention. Ask for assistance. e companies willing to confront reality and adapt decisively will define their next chapter of growth." H O U S I N G Affordable housing development set to continue B y L a u r i e S c h r e i b e r A robust pipeline of affordable housing development in 2025 will continue through 2026. "We are just as strong now as we were last year on the development side," says Daniel Brennan, director of Augusta-based MaineHousing. "at's because of the huge pipeline that was funded over the past several years." In 2025, 1,381 new units across 49 projects were completed or under con- struction, along with 618 rehabilitated units across seven projects — for a total of 1,999 units across 56 projects. Another 55 projects are in the pipe- line, not yet started. Funding for that tranche was approved two or three years ago, pro- viding certainty to the current pipeline. Will that trend continue after 2026? "We're certainly hopeful," says Brennan. "We've spent every penny that's been allocated to us. "So now we look to the legislature, reconvening in January, to seek continued funding for these vital programs" Housing continues to be at the top of people's minds and there continues to be bipartisan support in state gov- ernment, he said. "e hope is that supplemental funding will come in 2026 and a bond issue will come for 2027 to keep this level going," he said. If that doesn't happen? "In 2027 and 2028, our numbers will start to drop," he said. "But I'm pretty optimistic that folks in the legisla- ture will continue to fund what we're doing." R E TA I L / FA S H I O N Old Port retailer optimistic despite challenges B y A l e x i s W e l l s A lice Yardley, namesake of Alice Yardley Maine, a handcrafted leather brand, believes that the outlook for retailers in the Old Port seems "opti- mistic, but there are definitely challenges that have affected us this year." "Speaking for myself and my busi- ness, I will say that I'm getting a better feel for the seasonal retail patterns downtown," Yardley adds. "e thriving tourist season during the summer and fall months is really the driving factor for the success of a lot of the local shops. Most tourists want a genuine Maine experience and seem more likely to shop smaller local brands. I've noticed some seasonal retail shifts in the winter this year, with more people likely to shop online rather than in-store." Yardley says that the economic pres- sures of buyers and increased spending on supplies — with tariffs a factor — has definitely been something to keep an eye on, however it's hard to predict how these will affect businesses long term. "In terms of downtown Portland as a whole, retail performance is greatly affected by location, even block by block, so it's important to keep up with retail neighbors and support those around you to create vibrancy, encourage safety and promote local success," says Yardley. T O U R I S M Banner year expected for small cruise ships; large-ship outlook mixed B y L a u r i e S c h r e i b e r M aine's cruise sector will dip slightly as Bar Harbor's cruise ship ordinance plays out, but the details are nuanced, says Sarah Flink, CruiseMaine's executive director. Bar Harbor's numbers dropped signif- icantly in 2025; the decline will continue. e reduction created opportunities for Portland and Eastport. Eastport saw its busiest cruise season ever in 2025. Both cities are working to improve clearance times for customs and immigration processes. Rockland has a cap on visitors but is exploring raising those as it undertakes infrastructure improvements. e outlook for large ships is mixed. "Maine's overall cruise visitation dipped this year and is likely to drop a bit further in 2026," Flink says. e dip is due to two factors: Bar Harbor's cruise ship ordinance and » C O N T I N U E D F RO M P R E V I O U S PA G E F I L E P H O T O / T I M G R E E N WAY When the market evolves faster than your business model, 2026 may be the moment to reassess. — Jacques Santucci Opus Consulting Jacques Santucci, president and founder of Opus Consulting F I L E P H O T O / T I M G R E E N WAY We are just as strong now as we were last year on the development side. — Daniel Brennan MaineHousing Alice Yardley is the namesake of Alice Yardley Maine, a handcrafted leather brand. P H O T O / C O U R T E S Y M A I N E H O U S I N G Daniel Brennan at MaineHousing says a pipeline of affordable housing development will continue through 2026 — and he's optimistic it will continue beyond F O C U S

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