26 HARTFORDBUSINESS.COM | AUGUST 25, 2025
Opinion & Commentary
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EXPERT'S CORNER
The big question: Who's really eating the tariff costs?
By E. Keith Wirtz
M
ost investors and
observers around the world
were stunned by the scope
and ambition of President Trump's
newly announced trade policies
centered on sweeping import tariffs.
The measures
were unusually large
in scale and broad
in application — a
dramatic departure
from the norms of
recent decades.
And at first glance,
it felt as though President Trump
was picking a trade fight not with a
specific country, but with virtually
the entire global economy.
However, President Trump
soon clarified that the tariffs
were intended less as permanent
economic barriers and more as
leverage in a broader negotiation
strategy. By creating uncertainty
and demonstrating a willingness to
act aggressively, the administration
sought to bring trading partners
back to the table.
One thing is certain — these new
trade policies have created a lot of
confusion and anxiety for busi-
nesses, consumers and investors.
Confusion everywhere
Most people have heard of tariffs, but
few really understand how they work in
practice. To the average person, tariffs
often sound abstract — a distant, govern-
ment-to-government trade policy that
doesn't directly touch everyday life.
For years, tariffs were indeed a relatively
quiet backdrop in economic policy, rarely
at the center of public debate. But under
Trump, tariffs have become a mainstream
political and economic issue again.
So, who is eating these costs?
A tariff is essentially a tax on imported
goods. When the U.S. government
imposes a tariff, it adds a percentage cost
to products brought into the U.S. from
other countries.
For example, a 25% tariff on $100 shoes
means an additional $25 tax is due when
those shoes enter the U.S.
The U.S. importer is legally responsible
to pay for the tariff costs. When a foreign
company ships goods to the U.S., the U.S.
importer (often a retailer or wholesaler)
must pay the tariff to U.S. Customs.
The foreign exporter does not pay
the tariff directly to the U.S. govern-
ment. Most people think it is the other
way around.
Even though the U.S. importer pays the
tariff, the cost can be passed along in
different ways:
• Importer absorbs the cost: They
accept lower profits rather than
raising prices.
• Importer passes it to consumers:
Retailers increase prices to cover
the tariff, which can raise consumer
prices and contribute to inflation.
• Exporter absorbs some cost: Some-
times foreign companies lower their
selling price to U.S. importers to keep
demand stable, effectively sharing
the tariff's burden indirectly.
To get a measure for how these
tariff costs are being passed, I
would recommend monitoring the
following statistics:
Import price index (IPI): Measures
the prices U.S. importers pay for foreign
goods. If tariffs are imposed, import
prices usually rise immediately.
A rising IPI suggests importers are
absorbing some of the tariff cost, or
that foreign exporters are partially
passing on the tariff. If the IPI stays flat,
it may indicate foreign exporters are
absorbing most of the tariff.
Producer price index (PPI):
Measures prices U.S. producers charge
for their goods.
If import costs rise due to tariffs,
U.S. companies may pass costs on to
downstream producers, or absorb it
themselves. PPI increases after tariffs
suggest costs are being passed along
the supply chain.
Consumer price index (CPI):
Measures prices consumers pay for
goods and services.
If tariffs eventually lead to higher
retail prices, CPI will rise. There is
often a delay between tariffs hitting
imports and CPI reflecting it, because
companies may absorb costs initially.
U.S. corporate profit margins:
Tracks how much profit companies are
making relative to revenue.
If tariffs hit, but CPI and PPI don't
fully rise, shrinking profit margins
indicate that U.S. companies are
absorbing the tariff cost rather than
passing it on.
In closing, I would caution against
assuming that immediate inflation
spikes are imminent. The actual
impact of tariffs depends on corporate
pricing strategies, competitive pres-
sures and supply chain dynamics.
Monitoring import prices, producer
prices and corporate profit margins
over the coming months is the most
reliable way to determine where the
burden will ultimately fall.
E. Keith Wirtz, CFA, is the vice presi-
dent and chief investment officer of The
Wealth Group at Union Savings Bank.
Keith Wirtz
