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W W W. M A I N E B I Z . B I Z 21 JA N UA R Y 1 3 , 2 0 2 5 F O C U S E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T Need for new housing Maine needs another 80,000 units of housing, according to the Governor's Office for Policy Innovation and the Future. Woodcock is urging policy makers to ease zoning restrictions and allow for more new housing starts. "Housing is a barrier for meeting Maine's potential," he says. Interest rates, the pandemic and in-migration have all created more demand for housing. You can't control the market, but you can create more housing, he argues. "It starts on the policy side. e legislature and local municipalities need to balance zoning and make it easier to get housing built." Tariff and workforce concerns President-elect Donald Trump's plan to increase trade tariffs could have a damaging effect on Maine's forest products and seafood industries. Woodcock is also concerned about trade with Canada, which helps fill some of Maine's energy and oil needs. Woodcock is also keeping an eye on the new administration's prom- ised crackdown on immigration. He says authorized workers are a "critical" part of Maine's economy, particularly in the seafood process- ing and construction sectors. Worker visas are also critical to the seasonal tourism and agriculture workforces. "Every year has a new wrinkle," he says. P O L I C Y Policy changes could create challenges for businesses B y P e t e r V a n A l l e n J im Damicis, a policy analyst and senior vice president at Camoin Associates, says the outlook for 2025 may be "too early to call" but he has some concerns. Damicis cites concerns about trade tariffs, the impact of stricter immigration policies on workforce shortages and a continued lack of affordable housing. President-elect Donald Trump's intention to significantly increase trade tariffs are an immediate con- cern, he says. "Increased tariffs will have little to no impact if they are modest or used as a negotiating tactic over the short term to reposition the U.S. in global trade markets or other policy goals," Damicis says. "However, the impact will be substantial if they are relatively high over a long period and lead to trade wars." e Maine companies that could be hit include ones in agriculture, seafood, food processing and forest products. Higher tariffs could also affect companies that rely heavily on imports and exports, particularly in the areas of advanced manufac- turing and biomedical. "On the positive side, in the longer term, tariffs can lead to increased domestic supply and demand growth for U.S. companies, leading to increased employment and investment. is can partially offset the foreign export impacts for some industries and businesses," he says. "Additionally, with the threat or implementation of tariffs, we will likely see increased opportunities for foreign direct investment into the U.S. as foreign companies look for ways to get into the U.S. domes- tic supply chains." Immigration If stricter immigration policies are enacted, as promised, an already tight labor market could get even tighter. "is would add to the current lack of employment to meet indus- try demand," he says. Again, the industries affected would involve natural resources, fishing and agri- culture, as well as food production C O N T I N U E D O N F O L L OW I N G PA G E » The impact [of increased tariffs] will be substantial if they are relatively high over a long period and lead to trade wars. — Jim Damicis Camoin Associates

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