Worcester Business Journal

wbjournal.com | June 24, 2024 | Worcester Business Journal 13 Consumers may not be over the moon about the economy, but Central Mass. economic and business leaders see a somewhat stable economy headed in the right direction Not feeling the VIBECESSION M I DY E A R E C O N O M I C F O R E C AS T F O C U S 2 0 2 4 IMAGE| ADOBESTOCK.COM BY ERIC CASEY WBJ Staff Writer C autious optimism. ese two words are per- haps the most succinct way to summarize how some of the region's economists and business figures feel about the state of the Central Massachusetts economy. While much was discussed of an ex- pected recession in 2024, those fears have proven to be unfounded. Despite the re- gion's persistent housing crunch, typical indicators used to measure the health of the local economy remain steady. "If you'd asked me a year ago in 2023, I would have thought we were heading into a recession," said Roy Nascimento, president and CEO of the North Central Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce. "e economy just continues to surprise me, and the local economy just seems incredibly resilient." e local economy is proving to be strong, although Central Mass. doesn't exist in a vacuum, said Luis Rosero, professor of economics at Framingham State University and co-director of the MetroWest Economic Research Center. "We have some pretty strong funda- mentals," he said. "But we're also not im- mune to the headwinds of the national and global economy." High employment and somewhat high confidence e Worcester region's non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April sat at 3.2%, a tenth of a percentage point higher than the statewide rate of 3.1%. e Framingham area's rate came in un- der the statewide rate, at 2.6%, while the Leominster-Garder region was at 3.6%. With the exception of Leomin- ster-Gardner, these rates come in under the national April unemployment rate of 3.5%. All of these rates, including nation- al unemployment, sit lower than where they were to begin 2024. Business confidence in Massachusetts is largely holding steady, said Olena Staveley-O'Carroll, associate professor of economics at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester and a member of the Associated Industries of Massachusetts Board of Economic Advisors. "Businesses in Massachusetts, on average, seem to be confident about the future," said Staveley-O'Carroll. "On a more localized level, Worcester and more eastwards businesses are more optimistic about their conditions than Western Massachusetts, where confidence levels are a bit lower." In May, the Associated Industries of Massachusetts' statewide business confi- dence sat at 53.3, slightly lower than the beginning of the year, where it sat at 53.5. Aer a short dip which saw it reach a near all-time low in April, AIM's Central Massachusetts index sat at 50.6 in May, higher than January, where it was at 50. Scored on a 100-point scale, an index number above 50 represents an optimis- tic outlook, while a number below 50 represents a pessimistic outlook. A similar trend is playing out with oth- Continued on next page

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