Worcester Business Journal

wbjournal.com | April 1, 2024 | Worcester Business Journal 7 2010 population 2020 population Increase % Canal District & Green Island census tract 1,776 2,490 40.2% City of Worcester 181,045 206,518 14.1% Note: The data is for U.S. Census Track 7325, which includes 192 acres of the Canal District and the Green Island neighborhood Source: 2010 and 2020 U.S Census Bureau data CANAL DISTRICT CITY OF WORCESTER 2010 2020 % change 2010 2020 % change Occupied 682 971 42.4% 68,613 79,157 15.4% Vacant 139 150 7.9% 6,032 5,124 -15.1% Total housing units 821 1,121 36.5% 74,645 84,281 12.9% Occupancy rate 83.1% 86.6% 91.9% 93.9% Note: The neighborhood data is for U.S. Census Track 7325, which includes 192 acres of the Canal District and the Green Island neighborhood Source: 2010 and 2020 U.S Census Bureau data e sales prices of those properties is up, too; the total property sales volume from August 2018 to February 2024 was $24.3 million, an increase of 183% compared to the 5.5 years before the Worcester Red Sox announcement, according to data from real estate information provider CoStar, outpacing the 55% in- crease citywide and the 42% increase in Massachusetts. But the changing nature of the Canal District, even before the completion of Polar Park, isn't just captured in the dollars and cents of property sales and assess- ment valuations, as data from the U.S. Census Bureau provides insight on how the neighborhood changed from 2010 to 2020, before the stadium opened in 2021. Figures from Census Tract 7325, an area encom- passing about 192 acres of the Green Island and Canal District neighborhoods, shows the area's population increased from 1,776 people in 2010 to 2,490 in 2020, a 40.2% increase nearly triple the growth rate of 14% seen across Worcester during the same time period. Newly arriving residents into this region came from a wide variety of racial demographics, according to Census data. White individuals made up 52.6% of resi- dents in 2010, but 38.3% of its population in 2020, with the largest gains seen in people who identify as a race not listed by the Census or as two or more races. is influx in new residents was helped by the creation of new housing stock. While Polar Park-re- lated housing developments were still mostly in the pre-construction phase, the amount of housing units in the area's census tract increased from 821 units in 2010 to 1,121 in 2020, a 36.5% increase, larger than the city- wide increase of 12.9% seen during that time period. More of the housing stock was being utilized by 2020 as well, with an 86.6% occupancy rate, compared to an 83.1% rate seen in 2010. Both of these rates are under the citywide rates of 91.9% and 93.9% seen in 2010 and 2020, respectively. New housing stock While the lack of available financing and rising construction and labor costs have caused some Ca- nal District developers to scale back plans for new housing, 800 new apartment units are expected to come online in the next year or so, said Mike Jacobs, principal at Worcester-based commercial real estate agency NAI Glickman Kovago & Jacobs. Plenty of apartments are on the way, but who is able to afford them is another matter. While the development at the former Table Talk Pies manufac- turing site includes 53 affordable units, the Reving- ton and e Cove developments don't include any, as they were approved before the implementation of Worcester's inclusionary zoning rules, which requires a certain amount of affordable units in every newly constructed housing complex. Available listings for new apartments show developers are clearly banking on the idea that new residents in the Canal District will be wealthier than the average Worcester renter. Monthly rents for stu- dio apartments at the Revington are listed at $1,975, while one-bedroom units are $2,256 and two-bed- room units are $3,108. e average rent throughout Worcester is $1,366 for studios, $1,631 for one-bedroom units, and $1,883 for two-bedroom units, according to data provided by rental unit listing site Apartments.com. Future Canal District businesses With higher commercial property values, rents for small businesses leasing in the district are expected to rise. Understanding the fact the neighborhood has gone through a lot of change since 2018, Jacobs said rates six years were generally $13-$26 per square foot, which he expects to be the low-water mark moving forward. While these prices may have offered a fairly low barrier of entry for small shops and locally owned restaurants, higher rents give businesses a smaller run- way for learning how to operate on the fly, increasing the likelihood more established businesses with deeper pockets will begin to call the Canal District home. Businesses looking for a commercial lease in one of the new mixed unit developments are looking at rental rates of $30-$40 per square foot, said Jacobs. Other retail and service-based businesses in Central Massachusetts paying rents in the $30-$40 range include hair salons, spas, tax firms, and music studios, according to CoStar data. Many of these businesses are locally owned, but also include national chains, such as Minnesota-based salon chain Supercuts and Virgin- ia-based Liberty Tax Services. Jacobs sees new restaurants and breweries joining existing businesses of these types in the district. Other businesses eyeing potential locations in new Canal District spaces include dance studios, bakeries, package stores, banks, and cell phone stores. "e end result will be a mix of these types of busi- nesses," he said. One hurdle to creating a truly self-sustaining, walk- able neighborhood is the lack of a pharmacy or grocery store. While the Canal District has a number of smaller specialty food markets, one-stop shopping for everyday essentials generally requires a car or bus ride. 2010 2020 percent percent Race of population of total of total White 52.6% 38.3% Black/African American 11.5% 12.8% American Indian/Alaska Native 1.3% 0.8% Asian 8.4% 9.2% Native Hawaiian/Pacific 0.1% 0.2% Some other race 18.6% 26.4% Two or more races 7.5% 15.1% Note: The data is for U.S. Census Track 7325, which includes 192 acres of the Canal District and the Green Island neighborhood Source: 2010 and 2020 U.S Census Bureau data Canal District population growth Canal District population, by race Canal District housing Continued on next page Mike Jacobs, principal at real estate firm NAI Glickman Kovago & Jacobs, was named chair of the NAI Global Leadership Board in February. Even though this additional role will require a more global focus, he's still playing a key role in facilitating development of Worcester's Canal District. PHOTO | MATT WRIGHT

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