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V O L . X X X N O. I JA N UA R Y 8 , 2 0 2 4 12 E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T F O C U S H O S P I TA L I T Y 'Strong, vibrant' hospitality sector faces staffing, cost headwinds B Y R E N E E C O R D E S B ecky Jacobson, executive director of HospitalityMaine, is bullish on Maine hotel and restaurant businesses in 2024 despite staffing challenges and rising costs. "Maine's hospitality sector continues to prove its resiliency," she says. "Even as some businesses have chosen to close, others continue to open and prove that the industry is strong and vibrant. I don't see any reason to think that 2024 won't be as strong as 2023 — especially if the weather isn't as rainy as much of the spring and summer season was last year." She also sings the praises of tech- nological innovations from touchless hotel check-ins to QR codes for scan- ning menus. As for headwinds, she expects staffing to remain a hurdle despite an increase in the number of H-2B visas for temporary workers from abroad. "e majority of employers looking to hire won't be trying to access those visas, but are trying to hire locally," she says, adding that "there are still more jobs than workers." She also notes that rising operations costs must be absorbed somewhere, often through menu prices and room costs. "If costs associated with utilities, raw materials and regulatory compli- ance do not improve," she warns, "it likely means higher menu prices and more expensive lodging stays would remain in place through at least the beginning of 2024." On the opportunity side, she says that "this is a great time for restaurants and hotels to introduce comfort from around the world — whether it be in lodging concepts or menu additions." Her outlook for Maine's economy as a whole: "Cautious optimism." F I N A N C I A L S E RV I C E S Liquidity 'top of mind' at Maine credit unions B Y R E N E E C O R D E S C ris Wescott, interim president and CEO of the Maine Credit Union League, believes the recession fears of a year ago have receded but does not expect significant economic growth in Maine in 2024. "As long as companies continue hiring and consumer spending holds strong, we should be able to weather the economic slowdown," she says. e upshot for her industry: "With limited economic growth, high inflation and programs like student loan forbearance eliminated, credit unions will continue paying close attention to loan and credit card payment delinquencies." Fortunately, in Maine, where credit unions have strong relationships with their members, the loan delinquency rate is lower than the national average, she says. Another red flag: "Liquidity is top of mind for everyone in the financial services sector," she says. "During the pandemic, credit unions experienced significant growth in shares as Mainers received state and federal stimulus dollars. With those bonus dollars gone and people paying more for just about everything, share growth has slowed." She nevertheless sees Maine credit unions as financially strong, adding that "I'm proud of the impact our movement has made in Maine over the past year and believe our future is bright." On the legislative front, Wescott says the trade group is watching the federal Credit Card Competition Act and is hopeful the SAFER Banking Act will make its way through the U.S. Senate "to better position credit unions and other financial institutions when serving cannabis businesses." R E TA I L A 'more normal' year for Maine retailers B Y R E N E E C O R D E S W hen it comes to Maine's retail sector, boring isn't necessarily bad in the eyes of Curtis Picard, president and CEO of the Augusta-based Retail Association of Maine. He predicts 2024 as a "little bit more normal" compared to the years preceding the pandemic and more in line with the overall 10-year average. "We don't seem to be dealing with 9% inflation and workforce shortage and supply chain issues," he says. "ings have kind of evened out and returned to more normal." He notes that while workforce challenges are not over, they have improved over the last 12 to 18 months, with a lot of retailers fully employed or very close to full employment. Picard also welcomed dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, at its December meeting, that it may cut interest rates three times this year as "a good indicator." Headwinds for the retail sector in 2024 include political instability worldwide that could spark supply chain or other disruptions, and inflation risks. "It seems like inflation has moderated, but people are still acclimating to paying higher prices for a lot of things," he says. "I'm in the market to buy a new car and I'm not looking forward to it." » C O N T I N U E D F RO M P R E V I O U S PA G E P ROV I D E D P H O T O F I L E P H O T O / T I M G R E E N WAY P ROV I D E D P H O T O Becky Jacobson, executive director of HospitalityMaine As long as companies continue hiring and consumer spending holds strong, we should be able to weather the economic slowdown. — Cris Wescott Maine Credit Union League People are still acclimating to paying higher prices for a lot of things. I'm in the market to buy a new car and I'm not looking forward to it. — Curtis Picard Retail Association of Maine Curtis Picard, president and CEO of the Retail Association of Maine Cris Wescott, interim president and CEO of the Maine Credit Union League

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