Hartford Business Journal

32 HARTFORDBUSINESS.COM | DECEMBER 11, 2023 Opinion & Commentary EDITOR'S TAKE The good, bad and uncertainty of 2023 A s we head into the final weeks of 2023, it's a good time to reflect on a busy last 12 months. While many business leaders came into the year concerned about a potential recession, the state's economy seems to have held up stronger than expected, at least for the majority of 2023. But concerns about economic headwinds — including the effects of high interest rates and labor shortages — persist. Here's a look back on the good, bad and uncertainty from 2023. The Good Connecticut hasn't always been known as a fiscally stable state, especially earlier this century, but it has been in recent years, so much so that lawmakers in 2023 approved an income tax cut for the first time in decades. It will save taxpayers more than $460 million per year. According to the CT Mirror, the state has recorded nearly $11 billion in surpluses since 2017, when lawmakers adopted a spending cap and other fiscal guardrails that aimed to counter years of fiscal instability. Those surplus dollars have helped the state build up a $3 billion-plus rainy day fund and pay down billions of dollars in long-term pension debt. Surpluses are projected to continue through at least 2028, according to recent state estimates, which should give businesses more confidence about Connecticut's future direction. Employers added 25,600 jobs this year through October, pushing Connecticut's unemployment rate down to 3.5%. That's better than the U.S.' 3.9% jobless rate. Connecticut has also regained all the 289,100 jobs that were lost during the March-April 2020 COVID lock- down period, labor officials said. The Bad Not all the economic news was rosy. Several high-profile employers announced plans to leave Connecticut or reduce their presence here. Telecommunications giant Frontier announced in September it will relo- cate its headquarters from Norwalk to Dallas. Frontier said it will maintain a Connecticut presence, but chose Dallas for its central U.S. location and because it's a "business-friendly" city. In January, Danish toy maker LEGO Group said it planned to relocate its North American headquarters and about 740 jobs from Enfield to Boston by 2026, in search of a larger talent pool. In that same month, Campbell Soup Co. announced it was relocating the Norwalk headquarters of its Pepper- idge Farm subsidiary to New Jersey. Meantime, Connecticut's economy grew just 0.8% during the second quarter of 2023, compared with a national average of 2.1% growth, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. High costs of doing business and living, and lack of affordable housing remain detriments to growth. Those issues must continue to be addressed by state policymakers. The office market continues to slump as remote and hybrid work models remain in place. Many employers are still trying to figure out how to get more workers back to the office, even for just a few days a week, while other companies have embraced more flexible work arrangements and are reducing office space expenses. Greater Hartford companies shed a net 651,000 square feet of office space during the first three quarters of 2023, according to brokerage firm CBRE. About 30% of the region's office space is currently available. Complicating efforts to get more employees back to the office is the state's persistent workforce shortage. Connecticut employers reported 103,000 open positions in September, which equates to five available jobs for every three people who are unemployed. More office workers are needed to restore vibrancy in Hartford and other Connecticut cities. The Uncertainty What's still unclear is the future direction of the national and Connecticut economies. U.S. GDP grew at a higher-than-ex- pected 5.2% rate in the third quarter, but high interest rates have slowed business investment. Spending on Connecticut commer- cial property sales, for example, plunged 67% during the first half of 2023, according to CBRE data. Overall, $850.9 million in office, apartment, retail and industrial property sales were recorded in Connecticut during the first half of 2023, compared to $2.6 billion in deals during the year-ago period, CBRE data shows. Anecdotally, bankers and business owners have told me the lending envi- ronment has tightened. Whether that translates into a meaningful economic slowdown is yet to be determined. So far, we haven't seen wide- scale company layoffs, which is a positive sign. But employers are likely headed into 2024 with some trepidation about the economic outlook for the next six to 12 months. EXPERT'S CORNER How leaders can adopt a curiosity mindset By Bridget Cooper W hen I encounter two leaders who are at each other's throats, I find 100% of the time that they are both certain of their "facts"— yet one contradicts the other. How is that possible? It's not. Thoughts aren't facts. Certainty is an illusion. If they got curious about the other person's perspective, they might notice that their certainty is really a collection of percep- tions strung into a compelling story. Your brain is doing what it does best when it plucks information out that delivers a sure and negative account, one you interpret as factual. You know what you know, right? If a problem arises, you immediately know why it happened and who's at fault. These certain thoughts make you feel in control of what is, and what can be. It floods your brain with state- ments of certainty, convincing you of the story you are telling. When you hold on to certainty, you narrow your choices and limit how to see the situation and possible responses. We make negative statements of certainty, because our brain tilts toward the negative to protect us from external threats — not because the negative slant is true. The part of our brain that predicts positive or negative consequences is most active (aka stressed) when it doesn't know what to expect. Your brain's antidote to fear and anxiety is control, or at least the illusion of it. We want to be viewed as smart and right by others, which reduces our social anxiety. Funny thing: We're smarter when we are more curious, and we're more often right because we reach more informed conclusions. How do you know you're stuck in certainty? You: Make a lot of "I/ we know" and "he/she/they is/are" statements; avoid questions you don't already have a solid response for; are uneasy thinking about not knowing what's going on. Discovering new truths To expand your choices, take a curiosity stance when drawn into a conversation, decision or action. Doing so roots out assumptions, those all-too convenient crutches we use to move swiftly from problem to solution. Ask yourself, "Do I want to commit to this story, or get curious about it and consider how else I could see it?" You are more apt to make fully informed, intentional decisions when you're inquisitive. Curiosity embraces the unknown and boosts your aware- ness; it increases your choices; it maximizes your power. As such, it requires a degree of confidence and comfort in uncertainty. Einstein promoted "holy curiosity" because he recognized that when we think we know everything, we fail to learn more, discover new truths, and change things for the better. How do you get into a curiosity stance? • Ask "I wonder if/why/how?" and "how do I know?" and "what am I overlooking?" questions, of yourself and others instead of jumping to decisions borne of a "we've always done it this way" mentality. • Embrace being unclear (about people, situations, initiatives). The higher the stakes, the bigger the need for curiosity. • Place a premium on creativity. It's a researched fact that adopting a curiosity mindset increases creativity, which has a strong, positive influence on productivity and financial success. Since people prefer being certain, when we adopt a curiosity mindset, we empower ourselves and others to use our purposefully opened minds as a superpower. Bridget Cooper is a public speaker, facilitator, executive coach, lead- ership consultant and author of seven books, including the recently published "Unflappable: How Smart People Quit Overthinking, Ditch the Drama, and Thrive at Work." Greg Bordonaro Bridget Cooper

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