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HARTFORDBUSINESS.COM| JANUARY 9, 2023 17 Economic Scorecards CT's long-term growth will depend on improving business climate T he National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization that makes the official call on U.S. business cycles, has not yet declared the U.S. in a reces- sion, largely because the agency didn't want to impact the midterm elections. My tracking report, which I've used for 40 years with data history extending back decades, shows that the U.S. economy was teetering on recession in the summer of 2022. Housing prices nationally are projected to decline in 2023, while inflation remains high and home-heating costs are increasing. The huge inflow of fed- eral funds is clearly biasing Connecticut's fiscal pic- ture. While improving, the state's fiscal outlook is still precarious given domestic net out-migration and rising inflation. To make meaningful prog- ress on its fiscal front, Con- necticut needs to get serious about its business climate rankings, which have been in the bottom 10% for as long as I can remember. Many are unaware that there are thousands of fewer jobs in Connecticut com- pared to when Gov. Ned Lamont first took office, and that the state is more than 50,000 jobs away from its March 2008 peak. Budget stability breeds optimistic economic outlook for CT I n the absence of exoge- nous shocks (such as a war or another jump in oil prices), one can be optimistic about the Connecticut econ- omy in 2023. A major reason is that — thanks to the federal COVID money given to the state — we no longer have a budget deficit that for a long time seemed to be a permanent feature of our government and a drag on the economy. Another reason is the rejuvenation of the real estate market that had been stagnant for at least a decade. The extension of the moratorium on the gas tax is also a hopeful sign for the economy. Government officials, who wish to portray Con- necticut as a progressive state, should permanently eliminate the gas tax that is regressive and dispropor- tionately hurts low-income people. Connecticut has a labor shortage just as the rest of the country does. Hence, in 2023, Connecticut should experience a net job gain, probably around 5,500. This number is lower than the jobs added in 2022 because, as we emerge from the pandemic economy, job growth will slow down. Don Klepper-Smith Chief Economist/Director of Research DataCore Partners LLC FarhaD raSSeKh Professor of Economics University of Hartford HOW MANY JOBS WILL CT ADD IN 2023? 10,000 to 12,000 HOW MANY JOBS WILL CT ADD IN 2023? 5,500 WHAT'S YOUR 2023 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR CONNECTICUT? Moderate Growth WHAT'S YOUR 2023 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR CONNECTICUT? Moderate Growth WHAT WILL CT'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BE AT THE END OF 2023? 4% to 4.5% WHAT WILL CT'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BE AT THE END OF 2023? 4% WHAT TYPE OF GDP GROWTH WILL CT SEE IN 2023? 1% to 2% WHAT TYPE OF GDP GROWTH WILL CT SEE IN 2023? 3% WHICH INDUSTRY WILL ADD THE MOST JOBS? Health care and social services WHICH INDUSTRY WILL ADD THE MOST JOBS? Leisure, hospitality, and food preparation WHICH INDUSTRY WILL LOSE THE MOST JOBS? Retail WHICH INDUSTRY WILL LOSE THE MOST JOBS? No industries will lose jobs