Hartford Business Journal

ECONOMIC SCORECARDS 2022 likely a return to 'some degree of normalcy' W e still grapple with tremendous uncertainty about the economy and in many ways the economy's performance will depend on how well we can control the pandemic and its variants. Nonetheless, I believe science will subdue the pandemic and life will return to some degree of normalcy. Despite the recent rise in inflation, I remain optimistic about the prospect of the economy in 2022. This optimism rests on the historical experience that shows human ingenuity ultimately overcomes obstacles that appear to be insurmountable. CT will see modest growth in 2022, but challenges persist T he Connecticut economy is expected to see positive but modest growth in 2022, coming out of a COVID-induced recession and into recovery. I've been analyzing Connecticut business cycles for over 40 years now and every one is unique. In my mind, what makes the current environment different from others is the degree to which "spin, partial truths, and misconceptions" are coloring the hard economic data. Importantly, left unattended, these misperceptions often turn into "facts" in people's minds. As a math- trained analyst, this overall level of misperception is unprecedented, and I'd say most people are generally unaware as to the true health of the Connecticut economy. A case in point was the jobs data reported on by various media sources this past September. The headlines stated "Connecticut has recovered 7 in 10 jobs lost due to the pandemic" and gave the misimpression that we're 70% of the way back to full job recovery. That's simply not the case. The lack of fiscal discipline at the state and local levels continues to be an issue. According to the "2021 Report on Business Climate by State" produced by the Tax Foundation, Connecticut's business climate now ranks 47th in the U.S. and has consistently ranked in the bottom quintile for many years. State workers now make 40% more in wages and benefits relative to the private sector. High taxes, the high overall costs of living, and demographic shifts are factors that will continue to create challenges for the state. What's your 2022 economic outlook for Connecticut? What's your 2022 economic outlook for Connecticut? What type of GDP growth will CT see in 2022? What type of GDP growth will CT see in 2022? How many jobs will Connecticut add? How many jobs will Connecticut add? Which industry will lose the most jobs? Which industry will lose the most jobs? What will Connecticut's unemployment rate be at the end of 2022? What will Connecticut's unemployment rate be at the end of 2022? Which industries will add the most jobs? Which industries will add the most jobs? Moderate growth Moderate growth 3% 1.2% to 1.5% 70,000 25,000 Leisure & hospitality, education and health care Health Care and social services Manufacturing Retail 4.5% 5% Don Klepper-Smith Chief Economist, Director of Research | DataCore Partners LLC A quick snapshot of what four Connecticut economists and business professors think will happen to the state's economy in 2022. Farhad Rassekh Professor of Economics and Department Chair Barney School of Business, University of Hartford 18 HARTFORDBUSINESS.COM | JANUARY 3, 2022

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