Worcester Business Journal

14 Worcester Business Journal | June 7, 2021 | wbjournal.com M I D -Y E A R E C O N O M I C S U R V E Y FOCUS S ince February 2020, the U.S. has been mired in a recession, which has yet to officially end. e global impact of the coronavirus pandemic threw industries, supply chains, and workforc- es in turmoil, which all hit the Central Massachusetts economy hard. e unemployment rate in the summer hit 17.4% in Worcester, which is the highest rate ever recorded in the city by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite the rough past 16 months and the pandemic's continued impact on the economy, local forecasters are optimistic about the short- and long-term future of the Central Massachusetts business community, especially as statewide restrictions have been lied and vaccina- tion rates rise. Kathleen Glowacki, Bartholomew & Co., Inc. Glowacki, direc- tor of the invest- ment management department at Worcester financial firm Bartholomew & Co. said Central Massachusetts is poised to effectively bounce back. "A good sign is that in the first quarter of 2021, the broad Massachusetts econ- omy expanded at rate nearly double that of the rest of the United States," Glowac- ki said. e industry composition of Central Massachusetts, combined with a quicker than anticipated vaccine rollout are all positive factors to help the region's econ- omy recover quicker, especially when compared to the rest of the U.S, she said. e industries hit the hardest during the pandemic were those requiring a physical presence, such as leisure and hospitality but also manufacturing and construction, Glowacki said. While certain industries were directly impacted by the circumstances, the success/failure of companies really depended on their ability to quickly adapt. "e pandemic tested business leaders and either proved, or disproved, good leadership. COVID forced many com- panies to redefine processes, become more flexible to change, be agile with changing comfortable business customs, etc. It was a true test of each individual company," she said. Small businesses will be the backbone of any financial recovery in the region, she said. "Overall, far too much remains to be seen for the future economic landscape, but despite the challenges and changes caused by the pandemic, Central Mass. is in a strong position and recovery is underway," Glowacki said. John Regan, Associated Industries of Massachusetts Regan, president and CEO of industry advocate AIM, expects Central Massachusetts will reflect the econom- ic trajectory of the state. "Economic output in the com- monwealth rose at an annual rate of 11.3% in the first quarter and is projected to rise at 7.5% annual rate in the second quarter and 8.5% in the third quarter," he said. While the state's vaccine rollout will help fuel economic recovery, Regan said persistent supply-chain disruptions in various industries, the price runup in the residential housing market, and employ- er's inability to find qualified people to fill jobs, are all potential hurdles to slow down recovery progress. "Sectors leading the recovery will include construction, especially if Con- gress is able to pass an infrastructure bill, and the region's strong biopharmaceuti- cal and technology base," Regan said. As the public becomes vaccinated and business restrictions are lied, employ- ers' need for skilled workers will grow, resulting in a need for education and training, which Central Massachusetts is already equipped to fill, he said. "e region is also fortunate to be a leader in worker training and education, whether through the Massachusetts Manufacturing Extension Partnership, vocational schools, community colleges or four-year institutions. Training will be pivotal to an economic recovery that is already running short of qualified workers in settings ranging from hotels to electronic assembly," Regan said. Childcare and other gendered barriers have created disproportionate employ- ment numbers, he said. Along with fe- male workforce retention issues needing to be resolved, Regan predicts work-at- home and hybrid meetings/schedules are aspects of the workforce here to stay. "One of the lasting effects of the pandemic will be the unprecedented ex- odus of women from the Massachusetts workforce," he said. Jim Glassman & Rick MacDonald, J.P. Morgan Glassman, com- mercial banking head economist for global bank J.P. Morgan, and Mac- Donald, its middle market banking region manager for J.P.Morgan Chase Commercial Bank- ing, said Central Massachusetts could outpace the state, on average. "Looking at Worcester's numbers, you guys are doing much better than the state," Glassman said. He said Central Massachusetts' focus What to expect for the rest of 2021 BY SLOANE M. PERRON Special to the Worcester Business Journal As Central Mass. starts to put the pandemic in the rear view, economic professionals are optimistic about the next several months Downtown Worcester PHOTO | TMS AERIAL SOLUTIONS Glowacki Regan MacDonald Glassman

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