Mainebiz

V O L . X X V I I N O. I JA N UA R Y 1 1 , 2 0 2 1 14 2 0 2 1 E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T F O C U S A fter the challenges of 2020, when business adapted to pandemic protocols and "pivoted" to new busi- ness lines, many feel battle hardened and ready to deal with the challenges of 2021. Looking at a dozen industries, the Mainebiz staff analyzes the challenges and expectations for what's ahead this year. Many manufacturers last year shifted their focus and have already adapted to offering COVID-related products like swabs, personal protective equipment and hand sanitizer. A boatyard manager says he expects continued demand as people look for ways to get outside. And real estate is expected to continue to drive much of the economic growth. Out-of-state buyers accounted for nearly half of the Portland area's sales of owner- occupied multi-family homes. As Tom Landry of Benchmark Real Estate tells one of our reporters, "These folks have come in with cash and are creating bidding wars the likes we've never seen." After a year of adaptation, business leaders are better prepared Challenges and expectations for 2021 AG R I C U LT U R E Farmers hope local food movement continues to grow B y M a u r e e n M i l l i k e n M aine's farmers and food producers had to adapt not only to the chal- lenges of COVID-19, but to a drought that lasted most of the spring and sum- mer, and those challenges will continue into 2021, say those in the industry. Much of the adaptation was to find new buyers after the state's restaurants shut down, offset a little by an uptick in consumer focus on local food. "Many businesses have already shifted their operations to adapt to loss of markets and disruptions due to COVID-19, and we expect to con- tinue to see farms find innovative ways to continue to feed their communi- ties through direct-to-consumer and on-farm markets," says Ellen Sabina, Maine Farmland Trust outreach and communications director. Maine Organic Farmers and Gardeners Association, the farmland trust, the farmers market group and other agricultural organizations will focus in 2021 on making sure consumers continue to buy locally produced food. Sarah Alexander, MOFGA director, says that supporting local organic pro- ducers not only helps businesses survive, but also helps rural communities. "We have an opportunity to increase the food that we're producing in Maine to sup- port both our communities and regional consumer demands," she says. "When we grow more food, we also have the ability to address climate change by growing organically and tending to the soil health." MOFGA, which represents 500 growers and producers, plans to focus on food system resilience in 2021, including promoting a public policy platform that has an emphasis on the role that organic agriculture has in mitigating the effects of climate change. Another goal is simply ensur- ing farmers have the resources and support they need to succeed. In the immediate future, farmers' markets can play a critical role, says Jimmie DeBiasi, director of Maine Federation of Farmers Markets. In 2020, consumers turned to farmers' mar- kets to buy fresh food. "I think we can expect that again this fall and winter at farmers' markets," DeBiasi says. e federal relief bill approved at the end of December included $13 billion nationally for farmers financially hurt by the pandemic, but more help will be needed, those in the industry say. "We hope to see real investment in Maine's food and farm landscape from the local, state, and federal levels," Sabina says. "e pandemic has underscored the value of a vibrant local food and farm system — one nimble enough to adapt and meet the evolving needs of Maine's communities." B A N K S / C R E D I T U N I O N S Maine financial firms poised for further growth, competition B y R e n e e C o r d e s F rom processing emergency loans and loan deferrals to ramping up electronic services and drive-thru operations to keep employees and customers safe, Maine banks and credit unions were tested in 2020 — and passed with flying colors. "Fortunately, Maine's banks entered the pandemic — and a year of economic turmoil — from a position of strength," says Gregory Dufour, president and CEO of Camden National Bank. "With prudent capital management strate- gies and favorable asset quality, we were able to flex quickly and support Maine's businesses, families and communities in 2020, delivering on efforts such as PPP [Paycheck Protection Program] lending and loan payment relief." Curtis Simard, president and CEO of Bar Harbor Bank & Trust, was equally upbeat after his bank added more than 15,000 new accounts in 2020 and opened new branches in Brunswick and Bedford, N.H. "e industry is in pretty good shape," Simard says. "We raised a fair amount of capital coming out of the last reces- sion, and we've all had a pretty sustained period of reasonable health. at's proven that the banks have been very strong." In 2021, Dufour predicts that commer- cial and residential real estate sales will We expect to continue to see farms find innovative ways to continue to feed their communities through direct-to- consumer and on-farm markets. — Ellen Sabina Maine Farmland Trust Credit unions will focus on helping Maine recover from the pandemic through safe, affordable financial services, our philanthropic efforts, and by providing small businesses with the resources they need to pursue emerging opportunities and grow. — Todd Mason Maine Credit Union League F I L E P H O T O / J I M N E U G E R P H O T O / C O U R T E S Y M O F G A Sarah Alexander, MOFGA director Todd Mason, Maine Credit Union League president and CEO

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