Mainebiz

V O L . X X V I I N O. I JA N UA R Y 1 1 , 2 0 2 1 12 2 0 2 1 E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T F O C U S M A R I N E S E RV I C E S / M A N U FAC T U R I N G A Belfast shipyard benefitted when pandemic 'pushed people outdoors' B y P e t e r V a n A l l e n I n last year's Mainebiz "outlook" issue, Front Street Shipyard President JB Turner said the company had big projects underway for 2020, but he saw some warning signs that a decline in the lobster industry could have an impact on business. Little did he — or anyone else — know what was ahead in 2020. "We were fortunate that the pan- demic pushed people outdoors and boating is certainly a good way to social distance. Many large yachts came to Maine this summer albeit later than normal. July was quiet, but by August the big boats had figured out the vari- ous rules and came to Maine. While we had fewer transients because of the quarantine guidelines, we did see a steady stream of work through the summer and well into the fall," Turner says. By fall, Front Street Shipyard, which is a prominent feature on the waterfront in Belfast, had to turn away the opportunity to store sev- eral boats that normally "winter" in Caribbean waters. "ey were concerned with what the options would be in the islands and did not want to get caught in lock down as many did this spring," he says. Front Street also continued to invest in its facilities, including adding a large format, 50-by-15-foot 3D waterjet cut- ting machine, which will allow it to speed production of boat construction but also diversify into other types of manufacturing. He said hiring contin- ues to be a challenge, even with more people on unemployment roles. Looking ahead to 2021, "We expect boating to continue to be a popular activity to pursue as it has for the past nine months," he says. "We saw boat sales go off the charts in 2020 and that trend seems to be continu- ing into 2021 as people look for both new and used boats at rates not seen in years — all sizes!" F I N A N C I A L S E RV I C E S 'A perfectly fine year' for boutique financial planning firm B y R e n e e C o r d e s L ast year, Susan Veligor of Cornerstone Financial Planning pre- dicted challenges around hiring and an increasingly competitive market. Our 2020 predictions reviewed I n our 20 on 20 edition published last January, we had two lists: 5 things we knew going into 2020, and 5 warning signs. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic didn't make either list. Here's how those lists turned out: 5 things we knew going into 2020 1. Contractors have construction projects booked through the year: is didn't change, as construction was one of the industries to weather the pandemic. 2. Marijuana-related businesses continue to snap up industrial real estate: Another thing that stayed true through the year as industrial real estate and the cannabis industry stayed hot. 3. Demand for housing of all kinds will continue: Housing was hotter than expected, beating the 2019 record sales year, driven largely by out-of-staters fleeing pandemic-ridden urban areas. 4. Tourism has become a bigger economic driver: e reliance on visitors was never more clear than 2020, when they couldn't come. 5. Portland has more hotel rooms: True, but there was no one to stay in them. 5 warning signs for the economy 1. Worker shortages are affecting every industry: Despite unemployment driven by the pandemic, this still held true. 2. Rising construction costs could sabotage certain projects: Costs rose, but not to the level of sabotage. 3. Health care costs continue to eat into the bottom line: Health care was thrown into flux as the normal way of operating was no longer normal. 4. Rising consumer debt could affect big-purchase spending: Consumers stayed at home and those who still had jobs had plenty of time to shop online, it turns out. 5. The 2020 elections at all levels will be hotly contested: Yes. ey were. A year ago, Mainebiz asked 20 busi- ness leaders for their outlook for 2020. Most painted a picture of a continued booming real estate market and consumer spending, coupled with the challenge of an ongoing labor shortage. A year later, even with the pandemic and resulting shutdown, many of the predictions were actually on target. The hospitality industry, including restaurants, hotels and attractions, bore the brunt of the shutdown. But commercial real estate construc- tion protects continued unabated, albeit with tighter, COVID-related precautions. The demand for houses, driven by out- of-state buyers, fueled a 20% increase in Maine's median home price through November. And while many retailers saw business screech to a halt, essential stores like supermarkets and big-box stores were in some cases busier than ever. Retailers of outdoor gear (boats, bikes, paddleboards, kayaks, snowshoes, skis, etc.) couldn't keep up with demand. After an initial double-digit spike, the labor market continues to recover, and Maine's unemployment rate is in line with what it was during the 2008-09 recession, and is lower than the national rate. Real estate remained a hot commodity, along with outdoor gear No one saw 2020 coming, and yet … F I L E P H O T O / T E D A X E L RO D JB Turner, president and general manager of Front Street Shipyard, Belfast

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