Worcester Business Journal

wbjournal.com | September 28, 2020 | Worcester Business Journal 19 B A N K I N G & F I N A N C E F O C U S Best & worst performing Census tracts Of 170 Census tracts in Worcester County from 2010 to 2017, 13 trended downward in all four economic measurements in home values, population, household income and res- idents with college degrees, and 42 more were down in three. Another 68 were down in half the categories, 42 down in one category, and five that went up in each category. Here are those that did best and worst: n BEST PERFORMING CENSUS TRACTS These neighborhoods trended upward in all four main economic indicators. City/town Census tract Holden North Holden Mendon Mendon Millville Millville Shrewsbury South Shrewsbury Southborough East Southborough n WORST PERFORMING CENSUS TRACTS These neighborhoods trended down in all four main economic indicators. City/town Census tract Fitchburg West Fitchburg Grafton West Grafton Leicester West Leicester Leominster South Leominster Millbury South and West Millbury Oakham Oakham Petersham, Phillipston Petersham, Phillipston Southbridge Harrington Hospital area West Boylston West Boylston Center Worcester Mountain Road East Worcester South of Salisbury Street Worcester East Vernon Hill Worcester Lower Lincoln Street Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Community Reinvestment Coalition Worcester County economic performance The economic growth from 2010 to 2017 did not evenly hit all areas of Worcester County Worcester County Worcester County Census tracts where Census tracts Economic indicator metric rose where metric fell Population 118 52 Home values 191 51 Household income 79 91 Residents with college degrees 111 59 Note: The tracts doing well for college degrees include two with flat rates. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NCRC Coalition data. In all, 11 of the 24 areas with median household income of less than $40,000 in 2010 had lower incomes by 2017. at includes Worcester's downtown, Canal District, and the restaurant-saturated Shrewsbury Street and Highland Street corridors, as well as parts of downtown Gardner and Webster. But wealthier neighborhoods weren't always spared, either. Worcester's most prosperous neighborhood – a tract south of Salisbury Street west of Park Avenue – got worse in all four measures. So did Harvard, as well as the wealthiest parts of Southborough and Northborough. Already seeing recession's hit e current recession technically begun in February and exacerbated by the pandemic has already hit Worcester County's poorest neighborhoods hardest. Four Census tracts in Worcester and Fitchburg, for example, had unemploy- ment rates estimated at 30% or higher in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of La- bor Statistics, and the analysts Yair Ghitza and Mark Steitz, who compiled a working paper using Census data to show how high unemployment rates are affecting individual neighborhoods. Lower-paying jobs have tended to be hit the hardest during the pandemic. In the Worcester metro area, leisure and hospitality jobs – which average around $17 an hour nationally – have dropped by 26% this year through Au- gust. Finance jobs, whose pay averages more than $37 an hour, have declined locally by less than 3% during that time. Albelda, from UMass Boston, sees Greater Boston as one of relatively few areas nationally where job opportunities and pay did particularly well during the economic expansion following the Great Recession. Too many other areas haven't kept up, including in regions traditionally relying on manufacturing and other jobs pay well but don't require a college degree, she said. ose jobs are now less common. Finding solutions Fixes are not simple. MassINC and the National Community Reinvestment Coalition have pressed for restoring federal community development funds. Rao said better access to well-paying jobs is critical. Albelda sees a need for major interventions, including better health insurance and early education. "ose are big solutions," Albelda said. Any solutions will now have to be tackled at a time when communities are facing an employment and public health crisis. e recession suddenly erased roughly 24 years of job growth in the Worcester metropolitan area. e workforce in the area, which includes Worcester County and Connecticut's Windham County, was brought in April to the lowest level since 1996. Employment has recovered a bit since but as of August remained down 6.5% for the year. e biggest employment hits have taken place in the poorest pockets of Worcester County. Downtown Fitchburg is the poorest neighborhood in the county with a household income of $17,292, a fraction of the state's median of $77,378. It had an unemployment rate in June of 25%. Great Brook Valley in Worcester, with a median household income of $19,760, had an unemployment rate of 30%. e Census tracts in Worcester Coun- ty with unemployment rates of 25% or more had higher poverty rates. ose areas' average poverty rate more than doubled the national average and nearly tripled the state rate. Downtown Fitchburg, the poorest neighborhood in Worcester County, is already seeing additional challenges, including an estimated 25% unemployment rate in June. W

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