Hartford Business Journal

www.HartfordBusiness.com • August 10, 2020 • Hartford Business Journal 13 ally, other Max Restaurant Group eateries are open, including Trum- bull Kitchen and Max Tavern, which has been seeing some success with a $65 four-course tasting menu, which pairs cocktails with dishes. "A lot of these things that we do are trial and error … but this is a real hit," Abrams said, noting that the tasting menu will probably continue after the pandemic. But when it comes to the winter, there are few ideas for how to keep revenue flowing when weather and logistics make outdoor dining challenging to impossible. And restaurateurs are grappling with that loom- ing question without any solid answers, Abrams said. "We don't know what's going to hap- pen come fall," Abrams said. "We know one thing: People aren't going to want to sit outside, … all the restaurateurs are pretty ner- vous about that." Historic threat In a worst-case scenario, Max Restaurant Group could weather a situation in which restaurants had to be shuttered for the winter season, Abrams said. Anderson is playing with the idea of building heated igloos at Millwrights so outdoor dining can resume. But therein lies the problem for most restaurants, said Heather Lal- ley, an editor for trade publication Restaurant Business. The few options for offering cold-weather outdoor dining are expensive, and the restau- rants most in need of revenue don't have the money to make it happen. "The unfortunate thing is it's the mom-and-pop [restaurants] that have definitely seen the bulk of this impact throughout this crisis," Lal- ley said. "It's those guys who we're going to see go away, and poten- tially not come back." Analysts have predicted up to 30% of U.S. restaurants could close for good by winter's end, and the Inde- pendent Restaurant Coalition (IRC) — which lobbies Congress on behalf of independent restaurants — said 85% of non-chain eateries could go out of business by the end of the year. Independent restaurants account for more than three-quarters of restaurants nationwide, according to IRC, and in 2018 the industry employed more than 160,000 in Connecticut, or about 9% of the state's work- force, according to the CRA. There's not a whole lot these restaurants can do to avoid a harsh reality this winter, said Aaron Al- len, chief strategist and founder of global restaurant industry consult- ing firm Aaron Allen & Associates. "Essentially this [situation] favors those who have the cash and credit to make changes," Allen said, noting that for many who don't, "it's a fatal blow." Lalley agrees, and said this winter could represent a mass extinction event in the U.S. restaurant industry. "This is unprecedented in mod- ern days," Lalley said. "It's going to have wide-ranging ripple effects for years and years to come." We insure businesses large and small: CONSTRUCTION • FARMERS FINANCE & REAL ESTATE • HOSPITALITY INSTITUTIONS • MANUFACTURING PROFESSIONAL OFFICE • RETAILERS SERVICE • TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALERS • WOOD PRODUCTS Closer Coverage SM means more value, delivered with a personal touch. Our priority is providing Closer Coverage SM for you. At Acadia Insurance, we believe that better coverage means having an in-depth knowledge of your business. This means understanding the risks and uncertainties from your perspective. At Acadia Insurance, this is how we are closer to your business — and to you. CRA's Scott Dolch (far right) with Sen. Richard Blumenthal at Olio Restaurant & Bar in Groton. PHOTO | CONTRIBUTED Chef Tyler Anderson is considering outdoor winter dining options. PHOTO | HBJ FILE

• Cover