Hartford Business Journal

16 Hartford Business Journal • May 4, 2020 • www.HartfordBusiness.com By Matt Pilon and Greg Bordonaro mpilon@hartfordbusiness.com; gbordonaro@hartfordbusiness.com D epartment of Eco- nomic and Commu- nity Development Commissioner David Lehman has been busy lately, working all hours to help Gov. Ned Lamont and his other top advisors plot a strategy for reopen- ing Connecticut's economy. But that hasn't stopped him from noticing a few intriguing emails that landed in his inbox recently. They were from individuals inter- ested in moving their New York City companies to Connecticut. While they didn't say it explicitly, Lehman said their outreach was likely precipitated by a desire to flee a densely populated city that has become ground zero of a deadly global pandemic. "I do think there could be a migra- tion of businesses and potentially indi- viduals to more suburban settings," in the wake of the coronavirus, Lehman said. "And I do think suburban Con- necticut could benefit a little bit from that, at least in the short term." COVID-19's devastating health, so- cial and economic effects have raised many questions about what life might be like once the economy begins to reopen, particularly related to where people might choose to live and work. Some of the largest U.S. cities, which were already losing their luster prior to coronavirus, have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic — a recent study found that more than one in five New York City resi- dents have tested positive for the dis- ease — raising the prospect that city dwellers might seek refuge in smaller urban centers, or the suburbs. That could give Connecticut, long known as a suburban state, an eco- nomic advantage, given its proxim- ity and connectivity via Metro-North to New York City. Most experts, including Lehman, agree it's too early to say if there will be any notable population shifts, but there has been a spike in anxious New Yorkers seeking short-term rentals in Fairfield County, realtors and others say. "Density is really a problem going forward whether it's for businesses or individuals," said Joe Brennan, president and CEO of the Con- necticut Busi- ness & Industry Association. "I'm sure there are probably some people who are in apartments in New York or Boston, or some of the larger metropolitan areas, who are say- ing 'once I get through this I may want to re-think my living arrangements.' " Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden and widespread adoption of telecommuting, which many experts say is likely to become a more per- manent fixture in the way companies operate, reducing the need for office space and to live near where you work. Suburban reversal? There is a bit of irony in suburbs potentially being back in vogue, since many experts in recent years have blamed the state's lack of vibrant cities for contributing to Connecticut's economic decline. A key part of Lehman's economic- development strategy has been to focus on building up the state's cit- ies, and he's not backing away from that. He said he still thinks cities are the future long term, particularly Connecticut's smaller urban centers, which don't have nearly the popula- tion or density of New York City. A recent analysis by William H. Frey, of the Washington D.C.-based think tank Brookings Institution, found that the country's largest metropolitan areas — including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago — have actually been losing population in recent years as a strong economy gave aging and increasingly family bound Millennials and others the "wherewithal to find jobs and homes in suburbs and more parts of the country, which were not available to them in the immediate aftermath of the 2007 to 2009 Great Recession." Connecticut hasn't been able to take advantage of that trend, as its fiscal woes and lack of job growth over the last decade have coincided with declin- ing population in the last few years. The metro Hartford region has also seen its population shrink in each of the last five years, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. However, Connecticut has bested New York in the migration battle. Over a nine-year period starting in 2010, Connecticut gained a net 76,536 residents from the Empire State, according to an HBJ analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. And the pace of New Yorkers mov- ing to Connecticut has picked up in the last few years, Census data shows. Now, all eyes are on what might happen with population shifts in the wake of a once-in-a-century pan- demic, especially if such outbreaks become more common, which some scientists say is likely. On one hand, a prolonged eco- nomic downturn could force people to stay in place. "On the other hand, large metro- politan areas and cities — especially those at the center of the pandemic — could become less immediately attractive to movers than they were in the early 2010s," Frey wrote. Americans have been increasingly staying put for nearly four decades, so a sudden spike in migration would counter a long-standing trend, ac- cording to Thomas Cooke, a UConn geography professor who says Spacing Out As COVID-19 ravages big cities, CT's suburbs could become more attractive Northeast migration patterns Connecticut has lost population in recent years but has gained residents from some Northeast states. Residents CT residents Population gain moving to CT leaving state (or loss) Massachusetts 79,621 100,121 (20,500) New York 210,417 133,881 76,536 New Jersey 40,613 26,380 14,233 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Department of Economic and Community Development Commissioner David Lehman. PHOTO | HBJ FILE

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