Worcester Business Journal

12 Worcester Business Journal | April 27, 2020 | wbjournal.com Population downshi Fewer new residents are coming and more residents are leaving Greater Worcester, with a particular decline in foreign-born residents F or the last decade and beyond, the Worcester metropolitan area has turned primarily to one place for population growth: abroad. Foreign-born immigrants have long driven the Worcester area's population growth – and given diversity to its restaurants, shops, schools and workplaces – but a precipitous drop in international arrivals in 2019 could portend challenges to come. From 2010 to 2018, the Worcester metro area added an average of 3,784 new immigrants annually. at number peaked at 4,946 in 2017 but fell to 2,272 in 2019, according to new annual estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. A second trend moving in the wrong direction pushed 2019 to show by far the lowest population growth for the decade for the region: national migration. e difference between people from the rest of the country moving into the area versus moving out had the largest gap in three years. In 2019, 2,127 more Americans moved out of the Worcester area than moved in. Natural growth – births outnumbering deaths – declined as the decade went along, hampered by low birth rates. Because of the national migration and lower birth rates, the region relies on a regular influx of new immigrants to keep the population steady and the economy growing. e census defines the Worcester metropolitan area as Worcester County and Windham County, Conn. Metro areas in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Texas attract droves of Americans each year, primarily from the North. But the Worcester area isn't in the Sun Belt, and like other Northeast cities – even Boston and New York – it regularly loses residents to areas with warmer climates and cheaper real estate. Such trends are watched closely by experts in demographics and economics. In the city of Worcester itself, immigrants make up more than one out of five in the population, and studies have shown they have an outsized importance to the economy. "at domestic out-migration has been a pattern for a good half- century, with fits and starts," said Justin Hollander, a professor of urban and environmental policy and planning at Tus University in Medford. "International migration plays a role." A need for immigrants Immigrants have long helped fuel Worcester's economy, from long-ago mill workers to today's college students, doctors, and food and hospitality workers. Foreign-born residents make up nearly 22% of the city's population – roughly 40,000 of the city's 185,000- plus residents, according to the census. Across the metro area, immigrants make up 13% of the population. A decline in new immigrants today, particularly if it becomes a longer-term problem, will take time to become more apparent in the area's economy, said Anita Fabos, a professor of international development and social change at Clark University's Department of International Development, Community and Environment in Worcester. at's because there's typically a lag period of about 10 years from when a person arrives and when they have enough resources to start a business. "Some industries that are particularly reliant upon international workers or clients," Fabos said, giving universities as an example, "may have to seriously reconsider their business model with a loss of international migration." Worcester touts itself as a college town, and its nine higher education institutions bring thousands of students each year. But an Institute of International Education report last December showed local schools relying most on international students are already seeing declines. Worcester Polytechnic Institute, which has more than 1,800 international students, saw a drop of 2.4% from the 2017-'18 school year to the 2018-'19 year, according to the New York-based group. Clark University, with more than 900 international students, fell by 1.5%, and UMass Medical School saw a 6.5% drop to 158 foreign students. e high school-age population in Massachusetts is declining, forcing a greater reliance on students coming from elsewhere in the country or abroad. e state draws the country's fourth highest number of international students, according to the report. e state continued seeing a rise in international students that year, but that wasn't the case nationally. Undergraduate and graduate students enrollment dropped 1.9%, marking the second straight year in which numbers of students fell. Worcester's Seven Hills Foundation, a human services nonprofit, has seen the effects itself in trying to hire for its own programs, which are typically entry- level positions taken by immigrants. "Our abilities to recruit people from other countries has been pretty much Rosy and Marcos Reynoso, owners of Rosy's Beauty Salon, have lived in America for 30 years after emigrating from their native Dominican Republic. BY GRANT WELKER Worcester Business Journal News Editor Albanian immigrant Greta Bajrami (right), with her employee Ximena Areiza, was 9 years old when she moved to America, and in 2012 started her Westborough company, Golden Group Roofing. Emmanuel Larbi, co-owner of the Accra Girls restaurant, was 7 years old when his family immigrated from Ghana to Worcester in 2002. PHOTO/EDD COTE PHOTO/GRANT WELKER PHOTO/WBJ FILE

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