Worcester Business Journal

8 Worcester Business Journal | March 30, 2020 | wbjournal.com As nearly all pandemic scenarios show Worcester County needing more space for coronavirus patients, health and government officials are working to free up beds and look at alternatives PHOTOS/EDD COTE F O C U S H E A L T H C A R E C entral Massachusetts is projected to have among the biggest shortfalls in the number of available beds in the country, virtually no matter how hard the coronavirus pandemic hits. Under nine pandemic scenarios ran by a Harvard Global Health Institute study in March, the number of typically available beds in Worcester hospital referral region – which includes much of Worcester County – would fall short in all nine scenarios. If the region is able to slow the rate of the pandemic and hospitals can free up half of their nor- mally occupied beds, then the Worcester region would have even space in the two best-case of the nine scenarios, although it would still fall short in the number of intensive care unit beds. e projected shortfall has le local health officials working to empty their beds of non-coronavirus patients and find new ways to get more beds into hos- pitals, while public officials are looking for alternative spaces, including a plan to put 150 to 200 beds in Worcester's DCU Center. "Right now, there's plenty of capacity at the hospitals," City Manager Edward Augustus said. "is is trying to be ahead of the curve should it be necessary." However, even if the Worcester region is able to free up 50% of its normally occupied hospital beds of non-coronavirus patients (and thus increasing the number of available beds to treat coronavirus), the Harvard study still puts the region among the worst in the country for beds shortages: the bottom 13% for all hospital beds of the 305 regions studied nationally, and the bottom 16% for ICU beds. The best- and worst-case scenarios e Harvard study looked at every hospital referral region in the country and developed different scenarios based on the region's ability to flatten the curve: how much of the population is ultimate- ly infected with coronavirus and how long it takes those people to get infected. In the best-case scenario, 20% of the Worcester region's population is infected, and it takes 18 months for that to hap- pen. In the worse-case scenario, 60% of the population becomes infected in six months. e Worcester area has 1,525 beds, but not many are typically available – just 425, according to the study. If 20% of the area population becomes infected, which is at the low end of commonly cited estimates, and the surge patients is spread over 18 months – flattening the curve, in the parlance of health officials – the region would need 589 beds. ICU beds, which would be used for the sickest patients, would face a worse shortage. Most who contract coronavirus aren't expected to need intensive care, but only 43 such beds are typically available in Greater Worcester. If only 20% of area residents get the virus and the curve is flattened to 18 months, a projected 126 ICU beds will be needed, according to the Harvard researchers. But the shortage could be drastically worse. In the most severe prediction, of 60% of the area becoming infected in six months, the area would need 1,162 ICU beds. at's 27 times greater than the number of beds typically available. Early in the pandemic, it is difficult Needed: Hospital beds BY GRANT WELKER Worcester Business Journal News Editor UMass Memorial Medical Center workers set up a coronavirus testing tent at the University Campus in Worcester.

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