Worcester Business Journal

wbjournal.com | March 30, 2020 | Worcester Business Journal 11 The coronavirus recession won't be as bad as Great Recession F L AS H P O L L The economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus will kick off another recession, although not as bad as the Great Recession. 35% At-risk industries and poorly run businesses will be hurt, but the economy will return to growth mode by the end of the year. 38% What do you think will be the economic impact of the coronavirus? The impact of the global spread of the coronavirus hit Massachusetts hard in mid- March, with Gov. Charlie Baker closing restaurant dining rooms, businesses shifting to remote offices, and government officials urging would-be customers to limit their social interactions, all in an effort to stem the spread of the disease. When polled online, nearly all WBJ readers felt another economic recession was inevitable, but nearly 80% felt it wouldn't be like the Great Recession or worse. The end economic result will be worse than anything in my lifetime. 21% 100 A June St. Worcester, MA 01602 508.310.5406 www.bestprollc.com Cleaning for Health From office cleaning and floor waxing to carpet cleaning and all types of professional cleaning services, BestPro Cleaning has the resources and expertise to get your office cleaning done right. Whether you require daily, weekly or monthly cleaning services or just a one-time cleaning, BestPro Cleaning will customize a cleaning service program to suit your individual needs and budget. General Manager, Diana Gallego Commercial Cleaning Office Cleaning Janitorial Services Family Owned Serving Massachusetts Since 1998 General Cleaning Carpet Cleaning Floor Care Eco-Friendly Green Cleaning Services Facility Maintenance (landscaping, snow removal, and light construction repairs) H E A L T H C A R E F O C U S Once everything gets back up and running, businesses and industries all will recover quickly. 5% But other prominent areas of the Worcester area's economy, including health and education, are more recession-proof. at, and a relatively diverse economy, could help the area weather a downturn better than many other regions. "ere's not too many eggs in one basket," Baumann said. Still, even companies with deeper pockets can be scared into delaying hiring, putting new building projects or initiatives on pause, or make consumers – whose spending makes up about 70% of economic activity – want to spend less. ere's one advantage to what's happened so far with the economy: rock bottom interest rates. at has led to refinancing activity at the banks. "It's exploded," Ed Manzi, the CEO and chairman of Leominster's Fidelity Bank. Fidelity is working to help businesses with lending when possible, too, Manzi said. e Federal Reserve dropped rates close to zero, while 30-year mortgage rates were below 3.4%. e Mortgage Bankers Association reported mortgage loan applications rising fourfold in mid-March from a year prior. "ey're historically low rates," said David L'Ecuyer, the president and CEO of Shrewsbury-based Central One Federal Credit Union. "If you go back 100 years, you won't see rates this low. People are scooping it up." But there are challenges for Greater Worcester, especially since nonfarm employment has already been slowing. Initial data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed employment peaking in February 2018 and declining since. While those numbers have since been revised, they still show a slower growth rate. Greater Worcester metro area added 1,500 jobs in January from a year prior, for example, compared to 4,300 jobs from 2016 to 2017, according to BLS. An analysis of U.S. Department of Labor data by New York City ratings agency Moody's Analytics published in February placed the Worcester metro area 166th among metro areas with less than 1 million people, down from 70th last year. at fall was driven in large part by generally flat labor growth. "e wealthier Worcester suburbs will fare better," said Hans Despain, the chair of the economics program at Nichols College in Dudley. "Low- Continued on Page 10

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