Mainebiz

V O L . X X V I N O. I JA N UA R Y 1 3 , 2 0 2 0 12 2 0 2 0 E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T F O C U S E very January, Mainebiz looks at the coming year and asks a range of experts, "Where is the economy headed?" This year, we asked CEOs, business owners and nonprofit leaders what 2020 will look like. A year ago, many were expecting a recession. That didn't materialize and this year many are expecting to stay strong throughout the year. Yet, even though some sectors are strong, there are concerns out there. Construction costs continue to skyrocket, consumer goods are getting more expensive, health care costs are rising. As you'll see from the responses, there's not a clear direction the economy is headed. 1. Contractors have construction projects booked through the year 2. Marijuana-related businesses continue to snap up industrial real estate 3. Demand for housing of all kinds will continue 4. Tourism has become a bigger economic driver 5. Portland will have more hotel rooms in 2020 5 THINGS WE KNOW GOING INTO 2020 5 WARNING SIGNS FOR THE ECONOMY 1. Worker shortages are affecting every industry 2. Rising construction costs could sabotage certain projects 3. Health care costs continue to eat into the bottom line 4. Rising consumer debt could affect big-purchase spending 5. The 2020 elections at all levels will be hotly contested 20 Maine leaders weigh in on what's ahead for Maine's economy for 2020. Changes are on the horizon — though it remains to be seen what changes will actually materialize. '20 20 on A R C H I T E C T U R E & E N G I N E E R I N G Architects and engineers look to embrace new technology B y M a u r e e n M i l l i k e n G iven the impact of climate change, the design of buildings that reduce the carbon footprint will be a major priority for architecture firms, says Ellen Belknap, president of SMRT, Maine's largest architecture firm. "It's an exciting time for the building industry," she says. "Maine is in a strong position to lead the way in terms of new technologies and policies that support sustainability." Specifically, "Real innovation is happening in the architecture/engineering industry in the movement to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in buildings and infrastructure." Much of the carbon reduction focus has been on making building operations more efficient, but that's shifting to also include carbon emissions associated with building construction. "at includes extract- ing, transporting, manufacturing and disposal and recycling of materials," she says. Innovation that reduces building carbon foot- prints will continue to grow. One important move is the use of mass timber, specifically cross lami- nated timber, which has much lower carbon in both production and construction processes than steel and concrete. e announcement this fall that LignaTerra Global will locate a construction plant in Lincoln, and the town's creation of the Maine Forest Products Innovation Park, is exciting news for the architecture/engineering industry, Belknap says. "e coupling of carbon reduction and jobs cre- ation in Maine is a huge opportunity for the state to be industry leaders and for the architecture/engi- neering industry in the state to take full advantage of these products." e planned student center and residence hall at the University of Southern Maine, which SMRT is designing, is also "a great example of innovation in our industry relative to sustainability." Plans include passive house and LEED silver standards, as well as use of mass timber. Trends toward sustainability are becoming more mainstream, particularly off-site construction tech- niques and prefabrication of building components, she says. "What drives this movement is optimizing labor, quality, safety, schedule and cost … We anticipate more and more building components will arrive at construc- tion sites pre-assembled." Ultimately, the focus on developing sustainable technologies will help the state's economy, Belknap says. "I'm excited by Maine's opportunity to be industry leaders in developing floating offshore wind farms, manufacturing mass timber products, electrification of transportation and building heating and cooling sys- tems and replacement of building materials with high embodied carbon," she says. "e largest impact we can make in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is in the electrification of everything and the shift to renewable/green energy." The coupling of carbon reduction and jobs creation in Maine is a huge opportunity for the state to be industry leaders and for the architecture/engineering industry in the state to take full advantage of these products. — Ellen Belknap SMRT P H O T O / T I M G R E E N WAY Ellen Belknap, principal and president of SMRT, in Portland.

• Cover