Worcester Business Journal

Economic Forecast 2020

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26 2020 Economic Forecast • Worcester Business Journal • www.wbjournal.com BRYAN MOORE "I pride myself on a simple and seamless loan process; that way my customers can get back to business." Vice President, Commercial Lending www.countrybank.com/business/lending-officers bmoore@countrybank.com DIRECT DIAL: (413) 277-2073 Y O U R B U S I N E S S . O u r bu s i n e ss IS M E M B E R F D I C | M E M B E R D I F (800) 322-8233 To p d e a t h s o f d e s p a i r s t o r i e s i n 2 0 1 9 >> Massachusetts mortality rate rises The mortality rate in Massachusetts has risen 12.1% since 2010, the 13th highest increase in the country, a star- tling increase due in part to the opioid epidemic and a rising suicide rate. New mortality-rate data released in a report published in the Journal of the American Medical Association shows a widespread health problem across the United States, with all but two states showing a mortality rate increase, a sign of unexpected deaths. Massachusetts still has among the better mortality rates in the country, ranking eighth with 291.8 premature deaths per 100,000 people each year. The state's rising mortality rate has brought an estimated 1,155 extra deaths from 2010 to 2017, the study says. The mortality rate in 2017 was the highest since 2003, when it was 306.2. The report didn't specify the specific reasons behind any state's rising prema- ture deaths, but pointed to major causes including drug overdoses, diabetes, heart disease, alcohol-related liver dis- ease — most of which are rising, lead- ing to a drop in the American life expectancy following decades of improvement. Massachusetts had more than 2,000 opioid-related deaths in each of the past three years, up from just 375 in 2000, according to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. The state's broader drug overdose rate more than quadrupled in less than 20 years, placing it ninth nationally in 2017, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The state's suicide rate — 10 per 100,000 in the most recent three-year period — rose 35% from 1999 to 2016, among the sharpest increases nationally during that time, CDC data shows. Despite the discouraging data in the Journal of the American Medical Association report, a state Department of Public Health report in December 2018 showed the state's life expectancy rate breaking a national downward trend, rising to 80 years and eight months in 2016. Nationwide, the life expectancy was 78 years and seven months. The Massachusetts life expec- tancy rate peaked in 2012 and 2013 at 80 years and 11 months. Like Massachusetts, New England has among the nation's best mortality rates, ranking second out of nine regions in the report, behind only the West Coast, Alaska and Hawaii. But the region's 13% mortality rate increase since 2010 is the highest in the country. Nationwide, the mortality rate rose 6%, representing an extra 33,307 deaths in the eight years ending in 2017. >> Signs of progress in the opioid crisis, but problems remain Opioid deaths have become slightly less common across Massachusetts, even as they remain far higher than in the past. But four Central Massacusetts cities — Framingham, Gardner, Marlborough and Worcester — are headed in the wrong direction. The state singled out those four cities among just 10 statewide where the state said the number of opioid deaths rose by at least 20% between 2017 and 2018. In Worcester, fatalities rose from 80 to 97. Marlborough rose from five to 14, Framingham from eight to 19, and Gardner from eight to 11. Three-quarters of the way through the year, opioid-related deaths were down in Massachusetts by 6% com- pared to 2018. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health said the state had 1,460 opioid-related deaths either confirmed or estimated. That's a drop of 99 from the same period last year, when an eventual 2,033 were killed by opioids — the state's third-highest year on record. The slowly declining opioid death numbers were a good sign, but fentanyl, a synthetic opioid far stronger than her- oin and sometimes mixed with or sub- stituted for it, was present in a higher proportion of cases than before. Through the first nine months of the year, fentanyl was found in 93% of opi- oid-related overdose deaths in which a toxicology screen was done, the state said. That's up from 89% last year. Continued from Page 25 Harrington HealthCare System in Southbridge, which offers behavioral health services P H O T O / T M S A E R I A L S O L U T I O N S

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