Worcester Business Journal

www.wbjournal.com • Worcester Business Journal • 2 020 Economic Forecast 5 L ast year, WBJ readers seemed to be worried the slow-and-steady economic growth since the end of the Great Recession soon would come to close. This year, that's less of a concern. In the annual survey of WBJ readers last year, 35% said they expected slight or significant improvement in the region's economic output for 2019. That optimism was down from the previous two years, when more than 65% predict- ed improvement. This year, the number of survey takers predicting economic improvement in 2020 has risen to 54%. At the time the 2018 survey was taken, the national economy had hit a small lull, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 800 points, and people were worried about the impact of the trade war with China and the significant changes to U.S. tax policy. This year, those concerns seem more distant: The DJIA is up more than 5,000 points since Jan. 1. Despite more readers this year vs. last year predicting economic improvement, fewer actually feel good about how the economy performed. For the last three years, 79%, 85% and 77% of readers, respectively, said the economy had improved in the last 12 months. For this year's survey, those saying the economy is better is down to 70%, which is still a significant number, but just less than previous years. Yet, regardless of how they feel about 2019, WBJ readers expect a lot more from 2020: • 68% predict some level of improve- ment in their company's profitability next year; • 62% expect housing prices to increase (vs. 32% in last year's survey who expected an increase) The skills gap in the workforce remains a major worry for WBJ readers, though, as 85% of those surveyed said they were either mildly or very con- cerned they wouldn't be able to find the right people for any job openings they may have. In the survey question about the biggest impediment to business growth in Massachusetts (a survey ques- tion usually dominated by answers like, "High taxes" and "High cost of living") the most popular write-in response was the lack of a skilled workforce. Predicting economic performance – or even forecasting your company's own revenue figures – is always a bit of a guessing game, especially in an eight- question survey. Still, the survey shows WBJ readers are looking forward to 2020, even moreso than they were look- ing forward to 2019. Looking forward to 2020 A year after feeling less optimistic about the upcoming economy, WBJ readers see good things coming next year ECONOMIC FORECAST 2020 BY BRAD KANE Worcester Business Journal Editor Orieta Kristo (far left), founder and CEO of Horizon Insurance, Inc. in Worcester, sits with her team shortly after the opening of the expanded Horizon office in October. W What do you expect housing prices to do next year? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Increase Remain flat Decrease 2016 2017 2018 2019 55% 37% 8% 72% 25% 3% 32% 47% 21% 62% 34% 4% Do you think the Central Massachusetts economy is in better or worse condition today than it was at this time last year? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Better Worse Not sure 2016 2017 2018 2019 79% 5% 16% 85% 8% 7% 77% 8% 15% 70% 13% 17% WBJ readers make their economic predictions As it does every year, WBJ conducted an online survey of its readers in December to gauge their opinions on next year. How will the economy fare this year compared to last year? 2016 2017 2018 2019 Improve significantly 12% 15% 3% 4% Improve slightly 56% 50% 32% 50% Remain the same 19% 19% 29% 30% Decline slightly 9% 16% 30% 15% Decline significantly 4% 0% 6% 1% P H O T O / H O R I Z O N I N S U R A N C E

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