NewHavenBIZ

n e w h a v e n b i z . c o m | J u l y / A u g u s t 2 0 1 9 | n e w h a v e n B I Z 21 E C O N O M Y Real GDP growth by metropolitan area, 2007-2017 AREA GDP GROWTH U.S. 15.5% New England (CT/MA/RI/VT/NH/ME) 8.6% Bridgeport-Stamford, Conn. -9.4% Hartford, Conn. -6.4% New Haven, Conn. -9.0% Springfield, Mass. 7.4% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis A century ago, New Haven and Bridgeport were catching their breath at the close of the War To End All Wars, which transformed them into two of the most fecund manu- facturing centers in the United States, and indeed the world. Fabricating rifles, bombs and bullets may have been bad for those on the receiving end on the battlefields of France (and elsewhere), but it was transformative for the Elm and Park cities — richly deserving their accolades as arsenals of democracy. A century later their legacies as matchless manufacturing engines are just a memory. In the 21st century New Haven's economy is famously bound to "Eds & Meds." Higher education and health care account for about one of every five jobs in New Haven, whose two largest employers (by a substantial margin) are Yale University and the Yale New Haven Health system. at dependence is a two-sided coin. e explo- sion of the health-care industry in Connecticut and the nation is closely linked to the aging of the post- World War II generation. But when they have passed from the scene, they'll no longer need health care. Long term, Connecticut's recovery from the 2007- 08 recession continues to significantly lag the other New England states. is is illustrated most vividly by comparing GDP growth over the last decade of the region's mid-sized cities. New Haven, Hartford and Bridgeport posted "negative growth" numbers, while similar metro areas such as Worcester, Spring- field and Providence, R.I. have rebounded from their economic doldrums. Tax rates continue to play a key role in business decisions regarding location. Shelton's low property-tax rates have helped transform that lower Valley community into a corporate HQ powerhouse in the space of just two decades. At the same time, inner-ring suburbs such as Hamden have confronted challenges in attracting and maintaining businesses as a consequence of rising property tax levies — even as property values decline in some commercial districts. With the vitality of its bioscience and higher-ed- ucation sectors, New Haven appears to be best posi- tioned for economic growth over the coming decade compared to the other major Connecticut metro ar- eas (with the exception of Stamford). A key indicator is that it is one of the fastest-growing Northeast cities of any size in terms of venture-capital investment in startups spawned here. However, to maintain and even grow that compet- itive advantage, the Elm City's political and business leadership must confront such systemic budget chal- lenges as high fixed pension costs and deficit spend- ing to keep taxes in line so that the city remains attractive both to businesses and homeowners. at's the best hope for a city that hopes to sustain and build upon the encouraging but still fragile renaissance of the last two decades. n An economy for the 21st century AREA GDP GROWTH Worcester, Mass. 12.3% Boston, Mass. 18.7% Manchester-Nashua, N.H. 17.0% Providence, R.I. 5.0% Portland, Me. 9.7% New York, N.Y. 10.3% Philadelphia, Pa. 12.1%

• Cover