NewHavenBIZ

People's United's Traynor on how Connecticut's economy got off the rails — and what is to be done about it By Michael C. Bingham J ohn S. Traynor of Fairfield is executive vice president and chief investment officer for People's United Bank. More importantly, he has become the go-to economist tracking Connecticut big-picture economic performance, as well as the short- and long-term financial outlook for investors. Speaking in his office on the 13th floor of the People's United headquarters building on Main Street in Bridgeport overlooking Long Island Sound, Traynor will be the first to tell you: Connecticut's economic picture is not a pretty one. He discusses how we got here — and what it will take to effect a major course correction. Traynor was interviewed by NHB Editor Michael C. Bingham. Many of the presentations you give to business groups focus on how Connecticut's economic performance since the recession has been so abysmal. Before we get into that, is there any good news about Connecticut's economy and business climate? It's so easy to be negative, but there are actually a lot of positives in Connecticut — the intellectual capital, advanced manufacturing. When you scratch the surface and a lot of the business groups I talk to are surprised at how dynamic Connecticut's economy actually is. So, why has Connecticut so dramatically underperformed other New England states since the recession that began in 2007? e tax climate is driving businesses out of Connecticut. You raise taxes, and businesses pick up shop and they leave. ey're in another state that aernoon. e re- ality that I don't think Hartford has woken up to is that we're attracting the businesses of the future — but unlike manufacturing businesses of 30 or 40 years ago, the businesses of the future are highly mobile. You need to create a positive climate and maintain a positive climate. Connecticut doesn't seem to have grasped a lot of that change that's taken place. Those 'businesses of the future' — why are they starting here in the first place? ere's a talent pool here. It's a great lifestyle. Great education [re- sources]. If you look at the 'natural resource' of those businesses of the future, it's smart people. But even the ones who grow up and are educated here are leaving. My own children and their friends all le for New York, Boston or San Francisco. Part of this is demographic: From 2000 to 2010, the state of Connecticut lost 6.9 percent of 25-to-34-year-olds. My town of Fairfield lost 30 percent of 25-to-34-year-olds. Part of it is that it's very expensive to live here. And the jobs that my kids have in New York — they're all doing very well, making six figures — those jobs don't exist here. A few years ago there were some very good financial firms in Stamford — UBS is gone. So to keep [young professionals], affordable housing would be great. But you've got to start with the jobs first. e jobs aren't here. In your presentations to business groups you talk about how Connecti- cut needs for New Haven to become 'the next Cambridge.' What does that mean? Just at the Yale Medical School they're on the cutting edge with John S. Traynor Executive vice president and chief investment officer, People's United Bank Blue State in the Red O N T H E R E C O R D | Q & A Traynor outside People's United's Bridgeport headquarters building: 'I don't know if they're listening up in Hartford.' P H O T O / N E W H AV E N B I Z 6 n e w h a v e n B I Z | M a y / J u n e 2 0 1 9 | n e w h a v e n b i z . c o m

• Cover