Mainebiz

W W W. M A I N E B I Z . B I Z 11 JA N UA R Y 7 , 2 0 1 9 F O C U S 2 0 1 9 E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K F I N A N C I A L P L A N N I N G Stock market worries? Take the long view B y P e t e r V a n a l l e n M olly C. Reinfried, a certified financial planner, has been at HM Payson for four and a half years and was recently named chair of the firm's wealth management group. e promotion comes at a time when the stock market's volatility has shaken some investors. Her job is to encourage clients to take the long view — and she expects to have more of those conversations this year. To clients looking for a guidance, she asks about the long-term perspective. "We typically say, 'OK, let's talk about the near term. What do you need from your portfolio? Do you have enough cash flow so you don't have to draw on investments?' Volatility is scary," she says, but urges clients to continue to save and take a long-term approach. "What we've seen over the past 12 months is we've had some strong mar- kets and we've had vulnerable markets," she says. "e client reaction has been different in each instance." She has noticed that clients are becoming better educated about their own finances: investment balance and cash flow, but also the amount of disability and life insurance they carry, estate planning and making a record of beneficiary information. at applies to younger working professionals as well, she says. "Clients are more proactive in controlling their personal finances," she says. "ey want to know where they stand. ere's a lot more conversation about personal finance and financial independence." "We ask clients to take an inventory of their finances and there's a lot of work that comes out of that," she adds. "It's important to rank your priorities so you have a starting point." I N S U R A N C E Insurance exec is betting on a strong year B y W i l l i a m H a l l I nsurance is by definition a calculated risk, so Jeff Lind, COO at Clark Insurance, hedges his bets when he predicts what the year may hold for the state's businesses. Still, he can't help but be optimis- tic when he explains what his clients tell him. "Almost universally, we're seeing folks who expect 2019 to be as good as 2018, if not better," says Lind, whose agency employs 110 people and has five offices in Maine. Lind cites a couple of reasons for the positive predictions. With the state's unemployment rate at a historic low, employers are eagerly hiring — skilled laborers are particularly in demand. And the construction industry, which fuels much Clark's home and business property insurance, continues to appear healthy. "By all expectations, this will be a positive year [for construction]," Lind says. "ere's still demand out there." Lind says he sees construction projects that died years ago as a result of the recession now returning to life. "e sense of optimism is strong, especially in southern Maine," he adds. However, he also sees some cause for caution. e Federal Reserve increased its lending rate four times in 2018, from 1.75% to 2.5%, and the Fed has signaled it will hike the rate to 3% in 2019. e uptick could dampen the enthusiasm for new projects, Lind says. He's also concerned about two recent attempts to "create income tax reform at the ballot box." He's referring to the failed referendum to implement a surcharge that would have funded universal home care and the 2016 initiative to fund education with a higher tax on incomes above $200,000, which passed and then was repealed. Future such attempts could have a negative "pass- through effect" on Maine businesses, Lind says. And then there are other factors to consider, he adds, including the state's aging demograph- ics, the impact of weather change and storms, and even the development of self-driving vehicles. All could influence the business of Clark and its clients in the 2019. Nevertheless, he says, "is is still a vibrant economy." B A N K I N G An economic downturn could be lurking B y P e t e r V a n a l l e n C hip Kelley took over last summer as Maine market president for KeyBank, which has 49 Maine offices and nearly $2.5 billion in deposits. He has broad experi- ence in commercial banking in Maine, at Bank of America and, since 2005, at KeyBank. Kelley's outlook for 2019 is mixed, he says. On the plus side, he points to land-based projects, the Chinese paper company Nine Dragons' commitment to the re-start of the Old Town mill and continued growth in Greater Portland. He's hopeful the new administration in Augusta will be able to work in a bipartisan way. He expects that public-private economic development partnerships will continue to proliferate. "ere are a lot of great examples of the success of this," he says, citing the state Department of Economic and Community Development, Finance Authority of Maine, Maine & Co., Maine Technology Institute, Maine International Trade Center, FocusMaine. "Whether through a Maine Technology Asset Fund grant provided to a startup by MTI, a site selection project led by Maine & Co. or strategic direc- tion charted by FocusMaine-led analysis, there are a myriad of organizations work- ing together to grow and strengthen the Maine economy," he says. But his views are tempered by the threat of an economic downturn. "While I believe this year will see growth, I also believe we will face a contraction/recession in the not-too-distant future," he says. "Despite all this good news, I believe we will face a contraction/recession in 2019 or 2020. Fortunately, the deeper, broader and more rooted our economy becomes the better we'll be able to withstand the impending contraction/recession." Molly C. Reinfried Chip Kelley Jeff Lind P H O T O / C O U R T E S Y H M PAY S O N P H O T O / C O U R T E S Y K E Y B A N K P H O T O / C O U R T E S Y C L A R K I N S U R A N C E The sense of optimism is strong, especially in southern Maine. — Jeff Lind Clark Insurance Clients are more proactive in controlling their personal finances. They want to know where they stand. There's a lot more conversation about personal finance and financial independence. — Molly C. Reinfried HM Payson While I believe this year will see growth, I also believe we will face a contraction/ recession in the not-too-distant future. — Chip Kelley KeyBank

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