NewHavenBIZ

8 n e w h a v e n B I Z | J a n u a r y / F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 9 n e w h a v e n b i z . c o m T R E N D I N G B E Y O N D T H E H E A D L I N E S Report: For CT in 2019, New Haven 'must be our Cambridge' Flights not-so-fancy: Lamont ponders airport puzzle I f Connecticut is to rebound from its decade-long economic doldrums in 2019, "e recovery will be driven by the New Haven engine." at's the prognostication of John S. Traynor, chief investment officer of People's United Bank.Traynor spoke to an audience of business people in New Haven last month as part of a Regional Economic Outlook presentation of the Greater New Haven Chamber of Commerce: With the Lamont administration assuming office on Jan. 9, pros- pects for a Connecticut economic rebound are unknown. What is known is how much catch-up the Nutmeg State must play to keep pace with its peer states: a lot. e U.S. economy is in its 10th year of expansion, Traynor said, having posted an aggregate 15.5-percent real gross domestic A s the administration of incoming Gov. Ned Lamont works to dra a comprehensive transportation plan, new light is being shone on the state of and prospects for the state's three commercial airports. Last month Lamont released a dra of recommendations of a transportation working group he had assembled following his elec- tion. ese included the adoption of tolls for passenger vehicles to help pay for transportation projects — notwithstanding a campaign pledge to restrict the imposition of tolls to tractor-trailers only. A Dec. 19 press event announc- ing the plan took place at Bradley International Airport, which has been pursuing new routes, including to Austin and Jacksonville, Fla., in the south; Milwaukee and Nashville in the Midwest; Seattle on the West product (GDP) growth between 2007 and 2017. Over the same period, Connecticut's real GDP actually declined by 9.1 percent, according to the Bureau of Eco- nomic Analysis. At 6.4-percent growth, 10-year economic performance in the six-state New England region significantly lagged the national economy. Even so, Connecticut was an outlier in its own region. New England's economic rebound between 2007 and 2017 was paced by neighboring Massachusetts, whose GDP surged by 16.4 percent -- ahead of even the U.S. average. GDP performance alone doesn't tell the whole story. Connecticut ranked 44th in 2017 for per- sonal-income growth, posting a 1.5-percent increase against a national average of 3.1 percent. "at Connecticut has done so poorly — while being between New York and Boston during a tremendous rally in financial assets — is especially disconcerting." Likewise disconcerting is the reality that since peak employment Connecticut has lost a net 11,400 jobs. While the state has recovered 90 percent of all jobs lost during the recession, Traynor said, that recov- ery pales before the national average of 227 percent of jobs gained back -- and even more compared to the Massachusetts figure of 350 percent of jobs. How can neighbors Connecticut and Massachusetts, both deep-blue states with economies rooted in financial services, health care and education, perform so differently? For one thing, the Bay State can boast "a little engine called Cam- bridge," Traynor said, home to Harvard and MIT. New ideas, new technologies and new companies developed and invented there "tend to stay there," he explained. "New Haven needs to be our Cambridge," he said. Traynor's parting words to his New Haven audience: "People in Greenwich, people in Fairfield, are looking to you" for a brighter, more dynamic economic future for Connecticut. "e only place in Connecticut where we can recreate the Massachusetts Miracle is New Haven," said Traynor. n Real GDP growth 2007-2017 Connecticut's decline since the recession has been terrible Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. New England CT MA NH VT ME RI NY -9.1% 15.5% 6.4% 16.4% 10.5% 8.1% 2.2% 2.7% 12.7% Coast; and Jamaica. To the south, Tweed-New Haven Airport last month welcomed new service (sort of) to a second city — once-a-week flights to Charlotte, N.C. on American Eagle, scheduled to begin Dec. 22. e only des- tination accessible directly from Tweed had been Philadelphia, also on American Eagle, since Delta Airlines bade New Haven goodbye in 2006. And what of that other southern Connecticut airport, just 17 miles to the west of Tweed? Some public officials and others have been pon- dering whether Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford might help to meet the unmet need for com- mercial air access for business and consumers too far from Bradley or White Plains, N.Y. e hurdles to Tweed's expansion appear intractable. Citing noise, safety and traffic concerns (among its many shortcomings, Tweed lacks interstate access) homeown- ers in the East Shore neighborhood near the airport have for decades been unwilling to negotiate the runway safety-zone expansion that would allow Tweed to accommo- date larger regional jets to link New Haven with more destinations. Meanwhile, Sikorsky officials are seeking ways to fill the void. e city of Bridgeport (which owns the airport) are draing a master plan for the airport — the first since the mid-1990s. While campaigning in 2015 now-Bridgeport Mayor Joseph P. Ganim floated the idea of selling Sikorsky to get it off the financially challenged Park City's books. Now Ganim's administration wants to keep Sikorsky, and is even exploring what it would take to restore the commercial service it has lacked for decades. Last fall GOP gubernatorial can- didate David Stemerman advanced a novel notion: Sell the operating rights to (money-making) Bradley to a private operator, and use the dough to build up (money-los- ing) Sikorsky and invest in Tweed. Stemerman's electoral bid never got off the ground — but his airport idea just might. n

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