Issue link: https://nebusinessmedia.uberflip.com/i/1065164
www.wbjournal.com • Worcester Business Journal • 2 019 Economic Forecast 5 W hen the Great Recession ended in 2009, the Central Massachusetts econo- my had nowhere to go but up. But, now, after nearly a decade of improvement to revenue, produc- tion, unemployment rates, housing prices and other key economic indica- tors, that isn't true anymore. In WBJ's annual online survey of its readership on their businesses' out- looks for the coming year, we saw less optimism than in years past. Enthusiasm for overall economic growth, housing price increases and workforce skills was down compared to predictions for 2018 and 2017. However, more people planned to hire additional staff than at any point since the survey began in 2012. When asked how the economy will fair next year compared to this year, improving slightly was still the most popular answer, but overall more peo- ple predicted a decline in the economy instead of an increase: 36% vs. 35%. That's still really close, but in previous- ly years, roughly two-thirds of respon- dents predicted an increase. The national signs of the economy nearing its post-Recession peak are already starting to rumble: After much volatility in the last 12 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 800 points compared to this time last year. Certainly this is not the only indicator (the local, state and national unemployment rates all remain below 4 percent), but there is reason to believe WBJ's readers' collec- tive less optimistic belief about the coming year. The low unemployment rate has WBJ readers worried about the quality of the talent in the Central Massachusetts workforce, as nearly three-quarters of those who said they plan to hire this year say they are con- cerned new employees won't have the skills they need. With nearly half of readers say they plan on hiring, this could become an even bigger issue in 2019. Housing prices have been rising steadily since the 2007 crash, but the main reason the median price in Worcester County of $275,000 is 7 percent higher than last year is the high demand for the limited number of homes for sale, according to Boston real estate data firm The Warren Group. With 68 percent of WBJ read- ers predicting prices to stay flat or decline – the first time in the last three year the majority wasn't calling for an increase – that could mean more housing stock is finally coming onto the market, forcing prices to drop while at the same time providing ade- quate housing to meet demand. Less need for optimism After years of steady economic growth, WBJ readers don't see the same level of improvement coming in 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST 2019 BY BRAD KANE Worcester Business Journal Editor Emmanuel Larbi, co-owner of the Accra Girls restaurant in Worcester, has an ambitious vision for his business, hoping to one day make the brand nationally renown. W What do you expect housing prices to do next year? 2017 2018 2019 Increase Remain flat Decrease 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 55% 37% 8% 72% 25% 3% 32% 47% 21% Do you think the Central Massachusetts economy is in better or worse condition today than it was at this time last year? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2017 2018 2019 79% 5% 16% 85% 8% 7% 77% 8% 15% Better Worse Not sure WBJ reader survey As WBJ does every year, at the end of November and early December we conducted an online survey of our readers, gauging their opinions of the economy for the coming year. How will the economy fare this year compared to last year? 2017 2018 2019 Improve significantly 12% 15% 3% Improve slightly 56% 50% 32% Remain the same 19% 19% 29% Decline slightly 9% 16% 30% Decline significantly 4% 0% 6%