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www.wbjournal.com • Worcester Business Journal • 2 019 Economic Forecast 3 L ast year in this space, I wrote about Renee Diaz, owner of The Queen's Cups in Worcester, and how her enthusiasm and persever- ance would be emblematic of the can-do attitude of the Central Massachusetts business community in 2018. This year, my favorite person of the year had what most people would consid- er – in their most honest moments – a very bad year. Dave Peterson seems like an eternally optimistic person and a great asset to the Central Massachusetts com- munity, and, even now, he acts how every- thing will be fine for his business through 2021 and beyond. But it won't be. In August, Dave stood before the Worcester City Council for about three minutes and asked them what else he and his business could possibly do to curry their favor – so the councillors might want to protect his business, or at least not actively try to ruin it. The Worcester Bravehearts, Dave pleaded, have been a tremendous asset to the Greater Worcester business community since their inaugural season in 2014 and brought an average of 2,500 fan every game to the city to watch collegiate league baseball. Dave, the general manager of the Bravehearts, was responding to the much ballyhooed enthusiasm by the City Council to the Aug. 17 announcement by the Pawtucket Red Sox of their intention to move into a new city-build stadium inside a $240-million development in the Canal District. In a short four years' time, the council went from awarding the Bravehearts a key to the city – for being the embodiment of everything the Worcester business community is sup- posed to represent – to spending more than $100 million in taxpayer money to curry the favor of a Triple A minor league baseball club. Since his three minutes before the City Council, Dave has put up an optimistic front, saying how the Bravehearts will survive the arrival of the Worcester Red Sox by being a thought leader in the local sports community and use the built-up goodwill of its community give-back pro- grams over the last four years. In reality, though, it is difficult to see how Worcester supports two baseball franchises beyond the first year or two after the WooSox arrive for the 2021 season. This is the price of progress. The Red Sox are undoubtedly a finan- cial upgrade from the Bravehearts. Triple A baseball attached to the Red Sox brand indeed will bring in more ticket sales and corporate sponsorships than a collegiate league team. The City Council isn't wrong in pursuing that upgrade. If Worcester could bring in Amazon's HQ2 at the expense of a handful of local IT compa- nies, it would be the smart decision. But it is terrible for those homegrown players. As Worcester continues down the path of progress, the new, better players will squeeze out the lesser ones. The region will have a net positive, but it doesn't mean there aren't casualties along the way. Worcester property values are rising because people with money want to live and work here, but the resulting impact in property costs – Worcester rents are up 16 percent this year – means lower income residents are forced to make hard decisions. Near the end of his City Council speech, Dave said the Bravehearts weren't going to stand in the way of progress. He knows the city must keep moving forward by looking to attract valuable businesses and redevelop blighted property, which the WooSox will do. Economic develop- ment isn't a zero-sum game: These new places bring new customers and more wealth into the region, but it isn't all posi- tive, as they take away from other busi- nesses, too. New developments replace old ones. Hot new restaurants take customers away from existing eateries. Rising prop- erty values erode residents' expendable income. Dave's message might have seemed like a business' angry response to a damaging move by the City Council. In a way, though, it was a commentary on progress. The community is moving onto the next big thing, but we all can't forget business- es like the Bravehearts were once the next big thing, too, and played an important role in getting us where we are today. And that's why Dave Peterson is my favorite person of the year. - Brad Kane, editor My favorite person of the year is... TABLE OF CONTENTS WBJ readership predicts the 2019 economic conditions .......................................................... 5-6 Columnist: Expect a healthy Central Mass. economy in 2019....................................................7 WBJ Editorial staff economic predictions • Predictions of what will happen in Central Mass. in 2019 ..... 9 • Checking in on our 2018 predictions .................................. 10 List toppers • The No. 1 companies leading WBJ's various lists from 2018 ......................................................... 11 ECONOMIC FORECAST 2019 Industry forecasts for 2019 and top stories from 2018 • Manufacturing .................................................................... 13 • Hospitality .......................................................................... 17 • Real estate ........................................................................ 21 • Health care ........................................................................ 25 • Higher education ............................................................... 29 • Banking & finance .............................................................. 35 • Transportation ..................................................................... 38 W Worcester Business Journal (ISSN#1063-6595) is published bi-weekly, 24x per year, including 4 special issues in May, September, October, and December by New England Business Media. 172 Shrewsbury St., Worcester, MA 01604. 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Worcester Business Journal 172 Shrewsbury Street, Worcester, MA 01604 508-755-8004 tel. • 508-755-8860 fax www.wbjournal.com A division of: Worcester Business Journal WBJ Editor, Brad Kane, bkane@wbjournal.com News Editor, Grant Welker, gwelker@wbjournal.com (Real estate, higher education, health care) Staff Writer Zachary Comeau, zcomeau@wbjournal.com (Manufacturing) Contributors Susan Shalhoub, Livia Gershon, Sarah Connell Research Director, Stephanie Meagher, smeagher@nebusinessmedia.com Research Assistant, Heide Martin, hmartin@nebusinessmedia.com Production Director, Kira Beaudoin, kbeaudoin@wbjournal.com Art Director, Mitchell Hayes, mhayes@wbjournal.com Senior Accounts Manager Matt Majikas, mmajikas@wbjournal.com Senior Accounts Manager Christine Juetten, cjuetten@wbjournal.com Senior Special Accounts Manager Mary Lynn Bosiak, mlbosiak@wbjournal.com Marketing & Events Manager Kris Prosser, kprosser@wbjournal.com Distribution and Database Coordinator A Guide to STUFF, a publication of New England Business Media Patty Harris, pharris@nebusinessmedia.com COO, Mary Rogers, mrogers@nebusinessmedia.com Accounting Manager, Valerie Clark, vclark@nebusinessmedia.com Accounting Assistant, Rae Rogers, rrogers@nebusinessmedia.com Collections Manager, Raki Zwiebel, rzwiebel@nebusinessmedia.com Human Resources, Jill Coran, jcoran@nebusinessmedia.com Publisher, CEO, Peter Stanton pstanton@nebusinessmedia.com Associate Publisher, Mark Murray mmurray@wbjournal.com President, Joseph Zwiebel jzwiebel@nebusinessmedia.com